We’re down to eight, and for my money, this is the best weekend in football. Two games Saturday, two Sunday, and it feels like anything can happen.
The Divisional Round is where the league’s best put it all on the line for a spot in the final four, and if history is any indication, it won’t be as predictable as it seems. It’s not pretty for the big home favorites this round. In fact, here’s a reminder on key Divisional Round trends (since 2003) we observed earlier this week:
- Home favorites: 30-42-1 ATS (42%)
- 1-seeds: 13-24-1 ATS (35%)
- 1-seeds favored by 10 or less: 8-23-1 ATS (26%)
- Favorites with over a 75% win rate: 15-30 ATS (33%)
Whew, that is u-g-l-y for the favorites. Road underdogs finished .500 or better ATS in the Divisional Round in 14 of the past 19 years. If we’re backing a favorite this round, we better be really, sure.
Let’s analyze all four games and make some picks — sides, totals, props'and otherwise. I already made the case for every team’s future. Let’s dive into this awesome slate of games. Like usual, picks are labeled Bet, Lean or Wait.