1st TD scorer picks for the Divisional Round
What a weekend for my system! I have been betting the first-touchdown market all season based on which team is more successful at doing so than the other. Last week, I wondered if the trend would stay true in the Wild Card round of the NFL postseason and, thankfully, it did.
Of the six Wild Card games, only one featured an upset. The Bengals (10/17 on first touchdowns) scored first against the Ravens (12/17) on a 7-yard pass from Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase (+650 at DraftKings). But, as I mentioned in my article last week, despite the slightly worse first-TD record, we should’ve been targeting only Bengals players in this one since the Ravens had been so inconsistent with their first scorers all season, plus the questionable play at QB. So, as I only cashed one first touchdown ticket this week (Austin Ekeler, +550), I did go 5-0 in my “which team will score first” bets (I didn’t bet the Giants-Vikings game). Not bad!
Let’s take a look at the Divisional Round matchups and who we expect to score first. You can check out my tracker to see a full list of who each team targets early. Below is each Divisional Round game with first-TD success rates, followed by my suggestions.
Giants (7/18) at Eagles (11/17) – Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
I’ve gotta lean towards the Eagles in this one who have scored first in five of their last seven games. While I’ve become a believer in the Giants and think they could pull off the upset, I believe the rest will help Philly come out strong and find the end zone first. In both of their matchups earlier this season, the Eagles scored first, doing it with their run game (Miles Sanders in Week 14 and Boston Scott in Week 18). I’ll be on Sanders, Jalen Hurts, who has six of Philly’s first TDs this year, and put a sprinkle on DeVonta Smith who has four TDs in his last six games. Fly, Eagles, fly!