The NFL playoffs are rolling on this weekend, which means it's time to start considering how to bet the divisional round.
As I do at the end of every week during football season, I'm sharing some of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming weekend of NFL playoff games. Tail or fade at your leisure.
In this week's column, I'll explain how I feel about each of the four games before outlining what bets (if any) I like for the game.'
Best Bets: NFL Divisional Round Expert Picks
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I publish my best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit.'
One rule to keep in mind: Any time there's an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I'm almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play.'
There's an even greater emphasis on straight moneyline plays in the playoffs. Because playoff games nearly always end with either a favorite cover or an outright underdog victory, additional moneyline bets should be strongly considered.
This is the most David vs. Goliath matchup we're likely to have in this year's NFL playoffs, as the upstart Jags head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The Chiefs have appeared in four straight AFC Championship Games, and a win against the AFC South champs will make it five straight.
This game is a fascinating handicap. Very few bettors in the NFL odds market are willing to give Jacksonville a chance at the outright upset, but there is a healthy appetite to bet the Jags plus the points. The game opened at Jaguars +9.5 but has since slid down to +8.5 on the back of some sharp betting.
My gut tells me that Kansas City will jump out to a big lead and coast to a victory, but that still leaves Jacksonville open for a backdoor cover. The backdoor is always open when the number is this big.'
Rather than guess what the fourth quarter of this game might look like, I'm going to isolate a period I feel more confident in: The first half. Jacksonville was soundly beaten in the first half by both Kansas City (Week 10) and the Los Angeles Chargers (last weekend), only to mount second-half comebacks. This is kind of what Trevor Lawrence does.
I think Kansas City will give us a similar show in the opening 30 minutes of this weekend's game, so I'm moving to grab Chiefs -5.5 before it moves down to -6, which is a key number in NFL betting odds.
Play: Chiefs 1H -5.5