The Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) on Saturday, Jan. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this AFC Divisional Round playoff game with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Jaguars vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 53 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction for AFC Divisional Round
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this AFC Divisional Round game with 72.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread in this AFC Divisional Round with 62.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jaguars and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
- Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Marvin Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.05 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets for AFC Divisional Round
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets for AFC Divisional Round
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 9-9 (-0.9 Units / -4.57% ROI).
- Jaguars are 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 12.66% ROI
- Jaguars are 9-9 when betting the Over for -0.95 Units / -4.79% ROI
- Jaguars are 9-9 when betting the Under for -0.9 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 7-10 (-4.1 Units / -21.81% ROI).
- Chiefs are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 13.18% ROI
- Chiefs are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Chiefs are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars are 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .763.
The Jaguars are 2-7 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Jaguars are 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .455.
The Jaguars are 2-25 (.074) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs are 13-6 (.684) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .295.
The Chiefs are 12-2 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .494.