The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-185) on Monday, August 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 48-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 52-61 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s matchup with 72.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 32 away games (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kris Bubic has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+19.10 Units / 62% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 41 games at home (+16.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 62 games (+22.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+11.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 55 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 away games (+6.90 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 111 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games (+9.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+6.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 55-61 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -10.79% ROI).
- 48-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -7.5% ROI
- 57-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -2.82% ROI
- 55-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -6.13% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 52-61 against the Run Line (-11.75 Units / -8.59% ROI).
- 58-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -2.56% ROI
- 54-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 50-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.25 Units / -7.41% ROI
Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (204 Total Bases / 306 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .441 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .781 (25 Total Bases / 32 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .428 — second Percentile.
Kris Bubic has walked 10 of 61 batters (16%) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed an OPS of 1.062 (439 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: .758 — 0 Percentile.
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (38/129) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (31/107) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (77/201) against Joe Ryan on changeups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 52% — second Percentile.
Joe Ryan has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (103/201) of the time this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 61% — sixth Percentile.