The San Diego Padres (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+110) on Monday, August 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 65-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 51-64 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 40 away games (+21.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+17.75 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+14.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+18.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 92 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -6.84% ROI).
- 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.96% ROI
- 55-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -7.28% ROI
- 59-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.57% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 51-64 against the Run Line (-23.3 Units / -15.1% ROI).
- 50-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.8 Units / -14.32% ROI
- 50-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -11.69% ROI
- 59-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 3.57% ROI
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .190 (8-for-42) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 98th Percentile.
44% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 5 of 91 batters (6%) with runners in scoring position this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .132 (10-for-76) against Joe Musgrove in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (247/444) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (110/186) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .168 (29 Total Bases / 173 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .199 (51-for-256) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 93rd Percentile.