Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC West
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| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 463.25 | 376.75 | 10.5 | 11.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 372.5 | 377.5 | 8.4 | 8.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 346 | 402.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 340.75 | 438.25 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Tom is returning for one more, and Vegas expects this unit to score the most points of any NFL team (463.25) after scoring the second-most (511) in 2021. There is no doubt that this is a conservative number given that the team is favored in all but one game: a week 14 pick ’em’ against San Francisco.
- On defense, this team is expected to resemble the same unit that allowed the 5th fewest points in 2021. The team is expected to allow 376.75 points, 23 more than their 2021 total, and the 7th fewest.