The Miami Dolphins (9-8) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (13-3) on Jan. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park for the AFC Wild Card game.
The Bills are betting favorites in this playoff game, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction for AFC Wild Card game
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this AFC Wild Card game with 79.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this AFC Wild Card game with 53.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for the AFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Mike Gesicki has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jeff Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for the AFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets for AFC Wild Card game:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Bills Best Bets for AFC Wild Card game:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 9-8 (+0.1 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- Dolphins are 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.3% ROI
- Dolphins are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 8-7 (+0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI).
- Bills are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 4.77% ROI
- Bills are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Bills are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 17 passes this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
The Dolphins are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 22 points this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .711.
The Dolphins are undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 22 points since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .735.
The Dolphins are 3-6 (.333) on the road this season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bills are 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .568.
The Bills are 6-3 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .321.