NFL Sunday Best Bets, Saturday recaps
Saturday was a wild day in and out of the Tuley’s Take home office as we started working at home, went down to Circa in downtown Las Vegas to interview contests in their two big handicapping contests and then back home to finish up this column (after falling asleep for a few hours).
Yep, it was an exhausting but very fun day. Many of you know that I proxy for some out-of-state contestants in the big contests here (Circa Sports Million, Circa Survivor, Westgate SuperContest, Golden Nugget, William Hill), so early Saturday was spent putting in picks, made more frantic the Raiders-Chiefs game starting at 1:30 p.m. PT. Then, I put on my reporter’s hat and went down to Circa to interview two of the three finalists in Circa Survivor and some top contenders in Circa Sports Million. You can find my Circa contest update story on the VSiN.com website. When the players appeared on “The Football Contest Show,” I was on the floor of the VSiN studio writing down quotes and Tweeting out the plays.I then worked on that story during the Jaguars-Titans game and stayed after to Tweet out my nightly betting recaps (see below) before returning home to get some much-needed rest.
As for my own picks. I lost my supposed Best Bet on the Raiders +10 in their 31-13 loss at the Chiefs. With everything else going on, I had the game on the background at home and wasn’t watching every play but the Raiders seemed to be moving the ball on the Chiefs (when they weren’t turning the ball over, but had one long drive that resulted in zero points on a failed fourth-down and two long drives where they had to settle for field goals. They were down before scoring their one and only touchdown, so that wasn’t nearly enough to get back within the spread. I did at least win my second Best Bet on the TItans +6, though went 1-2 ATS with my two suggested NBA plays for a personal losing day. I also went 0-for-2 with my horse racing plays (plus a scratch) in my “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column that appears at VSiN.com/horse-racing/ each Saturday, but my friend Ed Sehon stayed hot by picking up the slack with a pair of winners – Candidate ($17.20) and Moon Cat ($9.00), a week after giving out a Pick 5 at Gulfstream that paid $588.20. Let’s get to the recaps of the rest of Saturday’s action and our NFL Sunday Best Bets based on the current lines. Then, as has become our custom around here, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we update our “takes” on the full NFL schedule and try to find some other value plays along the way on a wild Week 18 Sunday card.Saturday Recaps
NFL: Jaguars (6-point home faves) rallied to beat Titans 20-16 on late scoop-and-score by EDGE rusher Josh Allen to win AFC South but the Jaguars did NOT cover (games stayed Under the betting total of 39.5 points). Earlier, the Chiefs (8.5-point road faves) covered in their 31-13 win vs. the Raiders to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed and first-round bye (game stayed Under 52). Faves went 2-0 SU on the day while splitting 1-1 ATS. Home/road teams split 1-1 SU but dogs led 2-0 ATS. Unders swept 2-0.
More NFL: On season, faves lead 165-86-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 134-112-7 ATS (54.5%). Home teams lead 138-111-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games but just 123-122-6 ATS (50.2%). Unders lead 142-112-3 (55.9%) with primetime Unders improving to 34-19-1 (64.2%).
CBB: Washington State (12-point road underdog) upset No. 5 Arizona 74-61. No. 9 Gonzaga (8-point road favorite) escaped with a 81-76 win at Santa Clara, but didn't cover the spread. No. 22 Auburn (2.5-point home fave) beat No. 13 Arkansas 72-59, but it wasn't an upset.
NBA: Underdogs went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on Saturday with the Spurs (+15) covering in a 121-116 home loss vs. the Celtics. The upsets were by the Lakers (+7.5 in 136-134 win at Kings), Magic (+6.5 in 115-101 win at Warriors) and Bulls (+2.5 in 126-118 win vs. Jazz). Road teams went 3-2 SU but home teams led 3-2 ATS. Overs led 4-1.
More NBA: On the season, favorites dipped to 371-215 SU with 9 games closing pick-'em while underdogs improved to 298-271-17 ATS (52.4%). Home teams lead 362-233 SU and 311-268-16 ATS (53.7%). In totals wagering, Overs continued to improve their slim lead to 306-282-7 (52%).
NHL: Dogs went 6-3 with biggest upsets by the Blue Jackets (+280 vs. Hurricanes), Kings (+137 at Golden Knight) and Canadiens (+135 vs.Blues). Home teams went 5-4. Overs led 5-3-1 with the push in LA-VGK (6). On the season, faves lead 358-234 with 18 PKs, home teams lead 317-289 with 4 neutral-site games and Unders lead 295-288-27.
Sunday NFL Best Bets
Lions +5 at Packers: Hopefully I’m saving my Best Bet for last as we love the Lions in the Sunday nighter even if they’re eliminated from the playoffs by a Seattle win earlier in the afternoon. For more details, see below.
Browns +8.5/Texans +9 (2-team, 6-point teaser) Browns +8.5/Bills -1.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser) Rams +6 at SeahawksNFL Week 18 Best Bets, 'takes' on full card
Welcome to the Wednesday version of this column where we give our takes on the full NFL Week 18 schedule.
In last week’s NFL column, we won our Best Bet on the Broncos +13 at the Chiefs as they covered in their 27-24 loss and also with the Saints +5.5 at the Eagles, Raiders +10 vs. the 49ers in their 37-34 OT loss. We lost with the Texans and Panthers but swept with our 2-team, 6 point teasers with our top play on Browns +8/Dolphins +8.5 as well as Seahawks +7.5 and Steelers +8.5 (unfortunately didn’t also get to see if Bengals +7 would have cashed vs. the Bills on Monday Night Football). The Saints and Texans plays were originally given out on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights), so we split those to drop to 20-10 ATS (66.7%) with our early-week plays. This week’s plays are the Raiders +10 vs. the Chiefs on Saturday and Lions +4.5 at the Packers on Sunday Night Football (we also gave out TCU +13.5 in next Monday’s CFB Championship Game vs. Georgia). Without further ado, let’s go through the NFL Week 18 schedule (we normally put these in Nevada rotation order, but we’ve moved the games that are being played in the “afternoon” down to the 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT window and the Lions-Packers to the Sunday Night Football slot).Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This game was moved to the early Saturday slot (4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT) with the Chiefs still playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. Of course, that’s not as clear with the Bills-Bengals postponement. Anyway, we gave out the Raiders +10 on Sunday night and in the Monday version of this column for many reasons. As we’ve written many times this season, the Chiefs tend to let lesser teams stick around, including only beating the far inferior Broncos 27-24 on Sunday. Meanwhile the Raiders covered as 10-point home dogs on Sunday in a 37-34 OT loss to the 49ers, who have a far better defense than the Chiefs. Double-digit home underdogs are 5-1 ATS on the season, so I had to jump on this. The line has since been bet down to +7.5 (we’d like to think it was the clear sharp side), but I still like it at anything more than a touchdown as home dogs of +7 or more are 15-9 ATS (62.5%) this season.
Best Bet: Raiders +7.5, though hopefully followers already got the +10 (pool play: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, though Chiefs still 70/30 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
The AFC South title comes down to this Saturday primetime matchup after it looked earlier in the season like the Titans were running away with the division. However, they’ve lost six straight, including a 36-22 loss in the first meeting between these two teams, which is a concern. However, they get Derrick Henry back, plus I saw enough good things from Joshua Dobbs in the loss to the Cowboys last Thursday to believe he’ll be better with more than a week to prepare with the first-teamers. The Jaguars are obviously the hotter team with a four-game winning streak, but this is too many points to lay for a team that was 0-3 SU and ATS in the role of favorite before last week’s 31-3 rout of the Texans.
Best Bet: Titans +6.5, though hopefully it returns to +7 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, though Jaguars still 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-1)
The Jets (7-9) have been relegated to the spoiler role after a once-promising season has unraveled with a five-game losing streak. The Dolphins have also lost five straight and need a win and some help (Bills must beat Patriots) to the playoffs. The Dolphins’ have the No. 6 offense in the league with plenty of weapons, but haven't been as explosive when Tua Tagovailoa has been out of the lineup (and they might be going with third-stringer Skylar Thompson). The Jets have mostly relied on its No. 3 defense that allows just 19.1 points per game, but the problem is the offense have averaged a mere 12 points per game in their losing streak (and an even worse 9.5 points per game in the last four games). The Dolphins opened around 4-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon with other books opening at 3, but it was down to -1 at DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon with several books going to pick-’em.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
We heard people saying all season that this was going to be Mike Tomlin’s first year below .500, but the Steelers have won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 with a chance to prove all those people wrong if they beat the Browns on Sunday. The Steelers are 3-2 SU and ATS as favorites this season, but I wouldn’t trust them in this spot. The Browns beat them 29-17 in Week 3 when the Steelers obviously weren’t playing as well, but that was with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Browns haven’t been world-beaters with Deshaun Watson, but they are 3-2 SU and ATS in his starts with only the 23-10 loss to the Bengals in Week 14 being their only loss by more than 7, so let’s tease them up over a touchdown to +8.5. This is as good of a time as any to discuss our teaser portfolio with Sunday’s other options being the Texans +8.5 at the Colts, Broncos +9 vs. the Chargers, Bills -1.5 vs. Patriots and Bengals -1 vs. Ravens..
Best Bet: Browns in teasers (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests but Steelers still 55/45 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
This is one of the few Sunday games that doesn’t have any playoff implications and most people will only pay attention to see if the Texans play themselves out of the No. 1 draft choice (if the Bears beat the Vikings). The Colts have lost six straight games since Jeff Saturday won his coaching debut, so we would usually love to fade them in this spot, but the Texans are just as bad (and the 31-3 loss to the Jaguars last week was disappointing). I’ll just put them in a teaser or two.
Best Bet: Texans in teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests but Colts 60/40 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)