NFL Week 18 best bets
Week 18 is the final week of the 2022 NFL regular season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 52) at Las Vegas Raiders
Dave Tuley: This game was moved to the early Saturday slot (4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT) with the Chiefs still playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. I gave out the Raiders +10 on Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in the VSiN email updates as double-digits underdogs are 5-1 ATS this season after splitting with the Titans (L) and Broncos (W) in Week 17.
The line was bet down to 7.5 earlier in the week but was back up to 9 and 9.5 at most books as of Thursday night, so we might see +10 again for those who missed it. We still like the Raiders at anything more than a TD as home dogs of more than a touchdown are still 15-9 ATS (62.5%).
But it’s not just those betting stats and the points that make us like the play. As we’ve written many times this season, the Chiefs tend to let lesser teams stick around (2-6 ATS when favored by 7 points or more), including only beating the Raiders 30-29 in Week 5 as 7-point home chalk) and beating the Broncos by just 27-24 after closing as 12.5-point faves this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the Raiders covered as 10-point home dogs on Sunday in a 37-34 OT loss to the 49ers, who have a far better defense than the Chiefs, making them 2-0 ATS when getting 7 points or more (again, the other time was versus these same Chiefs).
Pick: Raiders +9 or better
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 40)
Wes Reynolds: Tennessee essentially used its 27-13 defeat versus Dallas as a bye week to rest key players including RB Derrick Henry and DT Jeffery Simmons. The Titans have a few extra days rest having played on Thursday night and should have some more healthy bodies here in the “loser leaves town” match of the AFC South.
Josh Dobbs, who started this season on the Detroit Lions practice squad, looked more competent than rookie Malik Willis as a starting quarterback. Dobbs will get the start in Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have clearly had a culture change in Doug Pederson’s first season down in DUUUVAL. Trevor Lawrence has clearly furthered his development in his second season. However, Jacksonville has received its fair share of good fortune late in the season. They beat a banged-up version of these Titans in Week 4, shut down Zach Wilson’s Jets with Mike White out on a short week, and got a walk-off pick-six against the Cowboys.
Now the expectations have changed and the Jaguars are expected to win. They have never been in this spot before and the Titans have. Under Mike Vrabel, Tennessee has been terrific in underdog spots. Vrabel is 21-9-1 ATS (70%) as a dog of three or more and has won 19 of those 31 games outright.
This is also likely to be a lower-scoring game as well. The Titans are 11-5 to the UNDER in 2022. Including his time in Philadelphia and this year’s 5-2 mark in Jacksonville, Pederson is 33-14 (70%) to the UNDER in home games. Lawrence is also 12-4 to UNDER in 16 career home starts.
Before all the injuries, the Titans were No. 1 in rushing defense and ranked Top 10 in DVOA. The market seems to have bottomed out on Tennessee.
Pick: Titans +6.5; UNDER 40
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)
Adam Burke: For the 30th straight season of football, the Browns will fail to finish with a better record than the Steelers. They can play spoiler here, though, and ruin Pittsburgh’s playoff chances and Mike Tomlin’s streak of not having a losing record as the head coach of the Steelers. Those are motivating factors, especially for a team without its first-round pick for the next 200 years because of the Deshaun Watson trade.
Watson showed some flashes last week in the second half against the Commanders, but he’s still been a massive downgrade from Jacoby Brissett. Among QBs with at least 100 plays, Brissett ranks 13th in EPA+CPOE composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expectation). Watson ranks 39th out of 48 quarterbacks.
Since TJ Watt returned in Week 10, the Steelers rank 11th in EPA/play on defense. What is a bigger surprise is that the Steelers are seventh in EPA/play on offense since Kenny Pickett took over in Week 10. That does include the week he missed when Mitch Trubisky started, but this Pittsburgh offense has gotten substantially better throughout the season, while the Browns offense has taken a nosedive.
The fact that this line is under a field goal shocks me. Cleveland’s defense has really improved as the season has gone along, but the Steelers are much better on offense and are just a better-coached team.
Pick: Steelers -2.5
Dave Tuley: We heard people saying all season that this was going to be Mike Tomlin’s first year below .500, but the Steelers have won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 with a chance to prove all those people wrong if they beat the Browns on Sunday. The Steelers are 3-2 SU and ATS as favorites this season, but I wouldn’t trust them in this spot.
The Browns beat them 29-17 in Week 3 when the Steelers obviously weren’t playing as well, but that was with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Browns haven’t been world-beaters with Deshaun Watson, but they are 3-2 SU and ATS in his starts with only the 23-10 loss to the Bengals in Week 14 being their only loss by more than 7, so let’s tease them up over a touchdown to +8.5.
This is as good of a time as any to discuss our teaser portfolio with Sunday’s other options being the Texans +8.5 at the Colts, Broncos +9 vs. the Chargers, Bills -1.5 vs. Patriots and Bengals -1 vs. Ravens.
Pick Browns +8.5/Texans +8.5 and other teasers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 40)
Adam Burke: Tom Brady seemed to be making a case for playing in Week 18 during his postgame presser after throwing for 432 yards in the division-clinching win over the Panthers, but it seems like a long shot that the Buccaneers would put the 45-year-old at risk in a game that has no bearing on the standings.
That means we’re likely to see Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask for the Bucs. Add in some Desmond Ridder on the other side for the Falcons and it’s tough to see where points come from in this game. Ridder has made three starts and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet. He has zero passing touchdowns and zero rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, he’s only rushed for 55 yards, so the dual-threat nature of his game has not been on display and that has limited the Falcons as a whole.