Thor Nystrom rounds out the season with his prediction for the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship between Georgia and TCU.
- 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
- 2022 bowls: 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%)
- 2022 combined: 109-83-4 ATS (56.7%)
- 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
- Monday, January 9 | 6:30 PM
- Georgia (-12.5) vs. TCU | Total: 63
- ATL: UGA -10.7 | ATT: 61.5
TCU Injuries & Inactives
- RB Kendre Miller (Injury)
- WR Quincy Brown (Injury)
- WR Caleb Medford (Transfer portal)
RB Kendre Miller tweaked his right MCL against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl but said after the game that he expects to be ready for the national title game. Miller was shaken up late in the first half, received treatment at halftime, but ultimately left the game after playing in the first series of the second half. Miller's bullish postgame comments were encouraging. But he's officially listed as questionable. Miller is a crucial piece to TCU's explosive offense. Miller broke out for 1,399 yards and 17 TD on 6.2 YPC this season.
WR Quincy Brown has been out since early September with a season-ending knee or ankle injury. He and WR Caleb Medford combined for only 44 snaps this fall.
Georgia Injuries & Inactives
- TE Arik Gilbert (Transfer portal)
- TE Darnell Washington (Injury)
- DT Bill Norton (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Nolan Smith (Injury)
- LB Chaz Chambliss (Injury)
- S Dan Jackson (Injury)
TE Darnell Washington exited the Ohio State game ??with a left ankle injury in the first quarter. After the game, HC Kirby Smart said Washington was being evaluated for a potential high-ankle sprain. UGA TE Oscar Delp soaked up most of Washington's snaps off the bench in the Bulldogs' two-TE system. Washington is officially listed as questionable for the national title game.
RT Warren McClendon, who suffered a knee injury in the SEC title game, dressed in the semifinal game, but didn't start and ended up taking a mere one snap off the bench. His replacement, RT Amarius Mims, played well. It's unclear if McClendon will be healthy enough to be a full-go for TCU or if Georgia will want to swap Mims out, even if he is.
OLB Chaz Chambliss needed help leaving the field in the semifinal game against Ohio State just before halftime with a left knee injury. His status for the natty is unclear.
TE Arik Gilbert, a former vaunted LSU recruit, scarcely played for Georgia over two seasons after transferring over. The No. 113 recruit of all time per the 247Sports Composite, Gilbert is looking for a new home in the portal.
EDGE Nolan Smith was the team's best edge rusher. He suffered a pectoral tear against Florida and is out for the season. Smith was Georgia's second-best defender to DT Jalen Carter by any measure you choose – PFF grade, NFL scouts' words, the eyeball test, etc.
S Dan Jackson is out for the season with a foot injury. He had posted a sterling 80.7 PFF grade in 126 snaps before going down in October. DT Bill Norton played only 46 snaps off the bench this fall – he transferred to Arizona.
How Georgia Got Here
After winning last year's national championship, the Bulldogs lost a record 15 NFL Draft picks. The offense more or less escaped the carnage. But last year's historically-awesome defense had two more starters taken in round one (five) than returned to school (three).
The Bulldogs were fortunate with the 2022 schedule draw. The non-con featured three cupcakes (plus getting former DC Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks in Atlanta in the opener). In the SEC slate, Georgia ducked Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi and Arkansas.
Along with Alabama's pair of regular-season hiccups, this made for the ever-rare season where Georgia could win the SEC and potentially the CFP without having to play Alabama. The SEC title game brought a banged-up LSU, which Georgia blasted.
Georgia is 14-0 and 7-7 ATS. The Bulldogs' -1.3 cover PPG rate ranks No. 80 in the country. Kirby Smart has built a juggernaut in Athens. This season, it's fair to say he hit the ball down the fairway.
That may sound like damning with faint praise. But it could also be read as a data point in Georgia's favor for Monday. If Georgia hits it down the fairway for a 15th time, they will repeat as national champions.
How TCU got here
Georgia is chalk. TCU is the opposite.
The Horned Frogs fired HC Gary Patterson last fall amid a 5-7 lost season. The Horned Frogs entered the season, having gone 16-18 since 2018. TCU had not won more than seven games in a season since 2017. Then, TCU's highest-profile player, five-star starter RB Zach Evans, transferred to Ole Miss.
TCU hired HC Sonny Dykes. Most weren't super-optimistic about the idea of immediate returns. But a few signs were pointing to a potential quick start for Dykes. TCU returned 18 starters for the second-consecutive season. In conjunction with multiple shrewd transfer portal signings, this year's TCU roster is very experienced.
The 2021 Frogs had two enormous tree-top issues:' They couldn't consistently throw the ball, and their defense fell off a cliff from 2020 (24.2 PPG allowed to 34.9). As I wrote about in my TCU season preview, the latter issue was going to improve through positive regression alone. The former issue is where Dykes came in. QB Max Duggan's improvement as a thrower, in large part, can be credited to Dykes.
Despite its struggles, the 2021 Frogs had a good offensive line and running game. Those things carried over – RB Miller proved ready for primetime, stepping into a larger role following Evans' exit – and the above terminal issues were immediately rectified. Mix in TCU's veteran experience and Dykes and crew's clever game planning, and you had a recipe for a magical season.
TCU enters 13-1 and 10-3 ATS. The Frogs were tripped up 31-28 in OT of the Big 12 title game against Kansas State. But TCU bounced back by upsetting Michigan 51-45 in the semifinals, a game the Frogs led and controlled throughout. TCU was underdogs three times this season – they won all three outright by six points or more.
Handicap: Georgia offense vs. TCU defense
Georgia's offense is constructed how an NFL evaluator would put together a college offense.
You've got a superb offensive line (every starter is PFF-graded top-140 at their respective position, and three are top-100), a heady, veteran quarterback (QB Stetson Bennett is 25 years old), a deep backfield (headlined by stud Kenny McIntosh) and a matchup-nightmare TE (Brock Bowers).
Georgia's ground game (No. 13 success rate) has the decided advantage on TCU's run defense (No. 69 success rate) heading in. But there are two caveats to this:
- TCU's run defense has ticked way up in certain matchups, such as the Texas game
- TCU has sometimes been able to mitigate opponents' running games by jumping out to an early lead and forcing them to play from behind.
One thing to keep an eye on:' UGA TE Darnell Washington's status. Washington doesn't get much ink because he's a tertiary option in the passing game. But he's one of the very best run-blocking tight ends in the nation. No regular tight end in the nation fits the “third-tackle” prototype more snugly.
Washington's 86.4 overall PFF grade ranks No. 2 on the entire Georgia offense, only one-tenth of a point behind QB Bennett. If Washington misses this game, he'll be replaced by youngster TE Oscar Delp. Delp has posted a rough 58.7 PFF grade over 143 snaps.
Georgia wants to get a lead and pound the rock against this undersized TCU defense – this is the clear goal heading in. It was Michigan's, too. The Wolverines also had a superb offensive line – the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line, in fact. TCU's 3-3-5 defense, run by DC Joe Gillespie, is built on speed, gang-tackling, and getting hands on the ball when it's in the air. TCU uses three safeties – all three are asked to chip in on run defense.
“Our team is built with speed, so it allows you to get more speed on the field,” Gillespie said of TCU's defensive scheme. “It allows you to be very versatile in the looks that you get… The first thing that's gonna stand out is there are a lot of hats running fast that can get to the ball in a number of different ways.”
TCU's defense cedes beef by swapping out a lineman for a safety, of course. But the Frogs get some back through its linebacking corps – all three starters weigh 230 pounds or more. In the run game, TCU's defensive line is asked to occupy blockers for the wave of linebackers and safeties coming to help. In the pass rush, TCU's line uses stunts – two players swapping gaps – and slants to discombobulate opposing lines. In combination with blitzing from unorthodox angles, TCU can generate heat by subterfuge and speed, not one-on-one physical supremacy.
In the passing game, TCU has the advantage on Georgia. The Bulldogs' offensive weakness is its mediocre receiving corps and the physical limitations of QB Bennett. TCU's defensive strength is its outstanding secondary, led by CB Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, the Jim Thorpe Award winner.
UGA QB Bennett has done a good job keeping the ball out of harm's way this season. So TCU's opportunistic secondary may not get the field-flipping opportunities in this game that they've gotten in others, most recently the Michigan game. But Bennett also isn't going to find many open windows to throw into.
Regardless of what the counting stats said, Bennett, coming off one of his worst games of the season, simply must play better on Monday. It would greatly aid him if Georgia is playing with a lead throughout. That's when it becomes bully ball with the occasional play-action shot. This is Georgia's game. The situation gets murkier for the Bulldogs if they're playing from behind.
Georgia did rank No. 1 in passing success rate during the season. But the Bulldogs ranked just No. 87 in passing explosion. Georgia typically picked on weaker secondaries by completing short passes and gobbling up YAC yardage. But Georgia rarely takes deep shots, partly because they haven't much needed to and partly because they don't have the personnel for it.
But deep shots are the one area you can nick TCU's pass defense, which ranks No. 111 in marginal explosion. Man-on-man across the formation, TCU's secondary has the advantage over Georgia's receivers. The exception to that is Bowers, who will be a handful for TCU to cover. But Bowers has had an oddly modest season to this point. Bowers has reached 70 receiving yards in only three of 14 games.
There are several offenses in the nation more dangerous than Georgia's. But few are more reliable. It's difficult to take away UGA's efficiency. They may not hit many offensive home runs, but they scratch out singles, doubles and walks with the best of them. To extend the metaphor, with runners in scoring position – in scoring opportunities – they're money in the bank.
Georgia ranks No. 1 in red-zone offense scoring percentage and No. 9 in points per scoring opportunity. This is an area where Georgia's offense has a huge advantage in this game. TCU's defense ranked just No. 78 in points per scoring opportunity allowed.
When backed up, TCU will hope to hold Georgia to field goal attempts. Georgia's red-zone TD rate ranking is No. 35, relatively meager compared to their scoring percentage. That tells you that the Bulldogs are at least a lock for a field goal when they breach your 20, but that you can force their kicking unit onto the field if you stiffen up.
Georgia's scare against Ohio State showed how the Bulldogs’ offense can get bogged down when the running attack slows, and Bennett isn't on his game. Bennett piled up yards later on during Georgia's wild comeback – but the Bulldogs probably never should have been in that position.
Not turning the ball over is crucial to prevent that from happening again, as is establishing run-game dominance. Georgia ranks No. 3 in time of possession. Controlling the ball – and keeping TCU's offense off the field – is way up there on UGA's priority list heading in.
Handicap: TCU offense vs. Georgia defense
TCU is only slightly above-average in terms of offensive efficiency in the country, ranking No. 56 in success rate and No. 49 in marginal efficiency. But the Frogs are as explosive as they come, ranking No. 4 isoPPP, No. 3 marginal explosiveness and No. 9 in explosive play rate. TCU is top-10 in explosiveness, both throwing and rushing.
This is the area TCU ultimately needs to succeed in to spring the upset. And they have a chance to. Georgia's defense ranked No. 6 in success rate during the regular season but only No. 44 in isoPPP and No. 46 in marginal explosiveness. TCU must take advantage of every opening Georgia gives for a big play.
Last season, TCU QB Max Duggan finished with the 19th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate in the FBS. He also finished No. 73 in adjusted accuracy. This year, Duggan slashed the turnovers while improving accuracy. Along the way, a big-play spigot was opened. Duggan's turnover-worthy throw rate, which was almost cut exactly in half from 2021, tied for 29th-lowest in the FBS – ironically, with UGA QB Stetson Bennett. Duggan's adjusted accuracy improved to No. 42.
Part of this can be attributed to a schematic change calling for attacking number advantages more than sheer air yards. Duggan's 9.7 aDOT in 2022 was the first time over four seasons on campus he hadn't averaged at least 10.3. And yet his adjusted yards per attempt exploded to 9.9, a full two yards above his career average.
Whereas Bennett mostly uses his legs to buy time in the pocket, Duggan has a legitimate rushing utility to his game. Outside of it, Duggan has combined to rush for 167 yards and three TD the past two games against Michigan and Kansas State.
Georgia is probably better equipped to deal with Duggan's ground machinations than TCU's last two opponents. That's because the Bulldogs, more disposed than most to play things straight on defense, rarely blitz. This strategy will surely cut down on Duggan's potential scrambling opportunities.