The Denver Broncos blew a second-half lead in a four-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 of the 2021 season. But in keeping the game within reach – ultimately losing by four points – they covered the spread (-11.5) to finish the season 5-4 against the spread at home.
It was the third straight season in which the Broncos posted a higher home ATS winning percentage than the league-wide home ATS winning percentage – after doing so just once in the previous three seasons. Only six other NFL teams did the same over that time.
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| Year | Broncos Home ATS | NFL Home ATS |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | .556 | .474 |
| 2020 | .500 | .498 |
| 2019 | .625 | .432 |
Of the six other teams that exceeded league-wide home cover rates each year from 2019-21, only two are in a position to do it again in 2022. The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins each have a home cover rate of .571, currently above the league rate of .498.
But if the Packers and Dolphins fail to cover at home in Week 18 – vs. the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets, respectively – and enough home teams cover elsewhere to push the league's season rate above .500, their streaks will end at three years.