Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we've assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick 'em.
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC West
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- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC South
Check out our NFL Futures Betting Guide >>
| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Buffalo Bills | 463.25 | 366.75 | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 393.5 | 390 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| New England Patriots | 379.75 | 377.25 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| New York Jets | 345.75 | 419.75 | 6.6 | 5.5 |
Buffalo Bills
- The Bills' projected 463.25 points are tied for most of any NFL team this season, yet nearly 20 fewer than they scored last season.
- Vegas projects the Bills to allow 366.75 points, the third-fewest, which projects the Bills to win 10.79 games – .70 games fewer than the Vegas total of 11.5.
- With a middling 12th most difficult strength-of-schedule, Buffalo is the projected favorite in 16 games this season, the most of any NFL team. No other team in the AFC East is projected or favored to win more than nine games.