Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Monday, January 2.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through January 1): 24-16-1 ATS (60.0%)
2022 combined: 106-82-4 ATS (56.4%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
ReliaQuest Bowl | Tampa, FL
Monday, January 2 | 11:00 AM
Mississippi State (-1.5) vs. Illinois | Total: 46
ATL: MSU -5.9 | ATT: 48
Mississippi State
RB Dillon Johnson (Transfer portal)
RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
RB J.J. Jernighan (Transfer portal)
RB ??Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
WR Rara Thomas (Transfer portal)
WR Zavion Thomas (Transfer portal)
WR Scoobie Ford (Transfer portal)
S Collin Duncan (Unclear)
S Dylan Lawrence (Transfer portal)
CB Emmanuel Forbes and S Jackie Matthews both declared for the NFL draft – but have importantly announced that they plan to play in this against Illinois.
S Duncan also declared for the draft, but didn't specify whether or not he would play in the bowl. Duncan was the defense’s second-highest graded starter behind Forbes. Considering that Forbes and Matthews were very clear in their intentions to play, while Duncan has not been, our current best guess is that Duncan will not play – but that's just a guess as of this writing (Dec. 24).
WR Rare Thomas posted 44 catches this fall as one of the team's four starting receivers. Mississippi State has the depth to cover for his loss – even with the losses of buried-on-the-depth chart WRs Zavion Thomas and Ford – but the Bulldogs' receiving corps greatly underwhelmed this fall and WR Rara Thomas was the highest-graded pass-catcher of the top-four snap-getters in that group.
RB Johnson was one-half of MSU's RB platoon. Johnson (81.2 PFF grade) slightly outplayed RB Jo’quavious Marks (75.8). Marks will need to shoulder more usage in the bowl, especially with RB4 Jernighan and RB6 Hargrove also out the door. This means that redshirt freshman Simeon Price will have to prepare for more usage.
New HC Zach Arnett said the Bulldogs are at “full strength” heading into this game. That's pretty close to the truth.
Illinois
RB Chase Brown (Opt-out)
RB DD Snyder (Transfer portal)
RB Josh McCray (Injury)
RB Aidan Laughery (injury)
TE Luke Ford (Opt-out)
LB Ezekiel Holmes (Injury)
CB Devon Witherspoon (Opt-out)
CB Tahveon Nicholson (Injury)
S Sydney Brown (Opt-out)
CB Witherspoon and S Brown opted-out and declared for the NFL Draft on Dec. 17. Each was named to First-Team All-Big 10 for their work in the regular season.
Witherspoon was PFF”s No. 2 graded Power 5 cornerback. Witherspoon led the country in completion percentage against (33.8) and forced incompletions (16), per PFF. A consensus all-American in 2022, Witherspoon is a projected first-round pick.
CB Brown started all five seasons he was on campus. During the 2022 regular season, Brown tied for the FBS lead with six interceptions. Last year, Minnesota HC P.J. Fleck compared the hard-hitting Brown to Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu.
CB Brown's twin brother, RB Chase Brown, opted-out of the bowl on Dec. 23, similarly declaring his intention to enter the NFL Draft. RB Brown was the offense's workhorse bellcow, leading the P5 in the regular season with 1,643 rushing yards to go with 10 TD.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. currently lists Brown as the No. 9 RB in the class. For whatever it's worth, Kiper ranks S Sydney Brown as the No. 7 safety in the draft.
It'll likely be RB Reggie Love III's show in the bowl. Love has shown workmanlike efficiency in the past. This year, with Brown assuming so much usage, Love was only used sporadically, totaling just 276 yards. At least he'll be fresh for all the touches that figure to be coming his way.
TE Ford, a projected UDFA, was a somewhat surprising addition to Illinois' opt-out list. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound Ford had 10 receptions for 88 yards in 2022. Despite the meager receiving production, Ford was a valued blocker in the Illini's physical downhill ground attack. A top prospect coming out of high school, Ford originally signed with Georgia before returning home to finish his career at Illinois.
C Bret Bielema is lobbying hard for star CB Quan Martin to play in this game. Martin is the last of Illinois' stars who has yet to announce – all the others have ultimately decided to opt-out. Illini DL Johnny Newton, meanwhile, said he will play in the bowl game.
Backup RB McCray is probable, while RB Laughery is questionable. LB Holmes and CB Nicholson were previously ruled out for the season with injuries.
Coaching news
Mississippi State HC Mike Leach died on Dec. 12 following complications to a heart condition. The day before, Leach collapsed at his home in Starkville. At the time of his death, Leach ranked No. 5 among active coaches in wins. Among the FBS' single-season passing yardage leaders, four-of-the-top-nine were coached by Leach. Leach was 61.
MSU's administration, who initially had tabbed DC Zach Arnett as interim HC for the bowl, hired Arnett as permanent head coach in the aftermath of the tragedy. Arnett’s signature 3-3-5 scheme performed well this season, putting him in a position to become the FBS' youngest HC at 36. Prior to joining Leach's Mississippi State staff in 2020, Arnett logged nine seasons as an assistant at San Diego State under former HC Rocky Long.
Meanwhile, Illinois DC Ryan Walters accepted the Purdue head coaching job on Dec. 13. He replaces Jeff Brohm. Walters was a finalist for the Broyles Award this season. The Illini defense took incredible leaps in the regular season, becoming a dominant unit that finished No. 1 in fewest points allowed and No. 2 in fewest yards allowed. The 36-year-old Walters becomes the fourth-youngest HC in the FBS.
Handicap
Illinois broke out with an 8-4 regular season behind a physical, reliable ground attack and a nasty, No. 3-ranked SP+ defense. But the Illini will play the bowl without several underpinnings of that ethos, including RB Chase Brown, who would have needed only 90 run yards in this game to lock-up the FBS' rushing title this season.
To try to absorb the blow of RB Brown loss, the Illini need a strong game from the RB2/3 Love/McCray duo, and it needs a big game from QB Tommy DeVito. Mississippi State's strong defense – No. 27 SP+ – remains mostly-intact for the bowl. MSU is solid against both the run and pass.
The Bulldogs' defensive weakness is allowing explosive plays, No. 85 marginal explosiveness. But the Illini didn't generate those even while at full-strength on offense, ranking No. 115 in the same category.
Illinois' No. 1-ranked pass defense against Mississippi State's Air Raid would have been a fabulous unit-on-unit matchup… had the Illini not lost two studs in the secondary to opt-out. The Illini still have play-makers back there, but the jobs of the carry-overs just got a lot more difficult.
MSU ranked No. 8 in completion percentage during the regular season, while Illinois' defense ranked No. 1 in that category. Can Illinois remain viable in this area with a compromised unit? One area the Illini will have a pronounced advantage: The Illini's defense ranked No. 3 in havoc, while MSU's offense ranked No. 83 in that category.
If both of these teams had been at full-strength, we would have been on Illinois. But the Illini lose far more value to inactives. And with less ability to control the clock on offense with the run, and a secondary filled with question marks against a pass-happy team, the advantageous areas of the matchups have dried-up on paper.
The pick: Mississippi State -1.5
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Cotton Bowl | Arlington, TX
Monday, January 2 | 12:00 PM
USC (-2) vs. Tulane | Total: 63.5
ATL: USC -2.1 | ATT: 70.5
Tulane
QB Justin Ibieta (Injury)
RB Cameron Carroll (Injury)
WR Dea Dea McDougle (Injury)
QB Ibieta and RB Carroll, both backups, are out for the season with shoulder and leg injuries, respectively. WR McDougle, a Maryland transfer, left the team last month, per HC Willie Fritz.
USC
QB Caleb Williams (Injury)
RB Travis Dye (Injury)
WR Michael Jackson III (Injury)
WR Jordan Addison (Injury)
C Brett Neilon (Injury)
OG Andrew Vorhees (Injury)
DT Kobe Pepe (Transfer portal)
EDGE Romello Height (Injury)
LB Ralen Goforth (Transfer portal)
LB Julien Simon (Transfer portal)
There were rumors early-on that USC QB Caleb Williams could sit with a hamstring injury. Williams has been emphatic with the media that he will play in the game if he's physically able. I heard the same thing – that Williams will play if he's healthy – shortly after this matchup was announced. Officially, Williams is considered probable.
RB Dye is out for the year with a knee injury suffered in November. Dye averaged 6.1 YPC over the first 10 games.
WR Addison, a Round 1 possibility in the spring, will miss the bowl game with his ankle injury, per HC Lincoln Riley. Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner, is expected to declare for the 2023 draft – and to be 100-percent healthy for the NFL Combine if so. Addison posted a 59-875-8 line in 11 games this season.
Starting OC Neillon and OG Vorhees both won't play due to injury, per HC Riley. Both were fabulous in 2022, and both are of great interest to NFL scouts. Riley said Vorhees is rehabbing with an eye towards draft prep.
LB Goforth posted 43 tackles as part of the LB rotation, but he's skipped town to join rival Washington. WR Jackson III is questionable with an undisclosed injury. EDGE Height was lost for the season in September with a shoulder issue. DT Pepe and LB Simon were rarely-used backups.
DL Tuli Tuipulotu, hasn't made an announcement about whether if he will return to USC or declare for the NFL Draft, has said that he will play in this game. Tuipulotu led the nation with 12.5 sacks and was a consensus All-American.
Handicap
Tulane improved from 2-10 last season to 11-2 conference champion. USC also went 11-2, one year after going 4-8.
Tulane arrives at full-strength. The Green Wave are extremely balanced, with the No. 43 SP+ offense, No. 30 SP+ defense, and No. 65 SP+ special teams. The offense can both throw and run, while being both efficient (No. 47 success rate) and explosive (No. 19 isoPPP).
Tulane's defense is similarly well-rounded from the tree-tops, ranking No. 30 in efficiency and No. 1 in explosive play rate allowed. Tulane has a very strong pass defense.
USC, by contrast, is a far more top-heavy team. The Trojans boast the No. 2 SP+ offense, but rank just No. 71 in defense and a ghastly No. 118 in special teams. USC's defense allowed a dreadful 6.3 YPP through the first 13 games.
USC is not going to be able to slow Tulane RB Tyjae Spears on the ground. Spears, playing in his last collegiate game, has topped 120 rushing yards in seven-straight games. The Trojans haven't stopped the run all year, ranking No. 120 in success rate and No. 116 in explosion. Take all Spears' overs in the prop market.
The short-and-intermediate passing game should be open for Tulane QB Michael Pratt. The Trojans have done a better job taking away the deep-area of the field than almost anything else defensively.
The other thing USC does well is take away the ball, so Tulane simply must take care of it. USC ranks No. 6 in turnovers forced, and No. 1 in turnover margin. Tulane did rank top-30 in turnovers lost. All in all, the Mean Green offense matches up well.
On the other side, assuming USC QB Caleb Williams plays – he says he will – will he have any physical limitations moving around after gimping-through the second half a month-ago in the Pac-12 title game against Utah?
Williams at 100-percent can take over games and flip outcomes by himself. He threw for 4,075 yards with a 37/4 TD/INT rate and rushed for 372 yards and 10 TD through the first 13 games.
Williams will be playing a USC offensive line compromised by losses of OC Neillon and OG Vorhees, who are both off to the NFL. USC's line was susceptible to giving up pressures and sacks in the fall. One fortunate thing, in this matchup, is Tulane doesn't generate much heat – ranking No. 117 in sack rate, No. 127 in pressure rate, and No. 79 in blitz rate.
Tulane LB Dorian Williams will be crucial to the Mean Green's efforts to address USC QB Caleb Williams on extended plays and muck-up throwing lanes. LB Williams ranks top-20 in the nation with 115 tackles and has chipped in 8.5 TFL, five sacks, and seven pass breakups.
Tulane has a very strong secondary. The Mean Green's pass defense ranks No. 37 in success rate and No. 16 in explosion. USC will be without WR Addison.
USC has managed to run the ball well without RB Dye. Running lanes will be open. The one area where you can consistently nick the Mean Green: On the ground, where Tulane ranks a mere No. 72 in run defense success rate. But how will USC's new-look offensive line fare in this area?
The margins are very close, here. Our number is basically smack-dab on Vegas'. We bet the Trojans a few weeks ago after bowl openings when the Trojans were a 1.5-point underdog. We don't see much value on the side with where this line has moved.
Instead, we're going to go over. Our system believes there's value on the over, and our handicap certainly confirms that both offenses project to have success.
The pick: Over 63.5
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NOTE: Sportsbooks were forced by New Jersey gaming regulators to pull this game off the board due to “an individual associated with the Purdue Football team” being in violation of state regulations. That person is Drew Brees. Purdue added Brees to its coaching staff on an interim basis for the bowls on Dec. 15. A week later, PointsBet, which had employed Brees as a brand ambassador since June 2021, severed its business relationship with Brees. But New Jersey elected on Dec. 30 to yank this game off boards and reimburse all bets made after Dec. 15.
Citrus Bowl | Orlando, FL
Monday, January 2 | 12:00 PM
LSU (-14.5) vs. Purdue | Total: 56
ATL: LSU -12.0 | ATT: 55.5
LSU
QB Jayden Daniels (Injury)
RB ??Armoni Goodwin (Injury)
WR Jack Bech (Transfer portal)
WR Kyren Lacy (Injury)
WR Jaray Jenkins (Opt-out)
WR Chris Hilton Jr. (Injury)
WR Kayshon Boutte (Opt-out)
TE Kole Taylor (Transfer portal)
OG Xavier Hill (Transfer portal)
OT Cam Wire (Transfer portal)
OT Marcus Dumervil (Transfer portal)
DT Maason Smith (Injury)
NT Jaquelin Roy (Opt-out)
EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
EDGE Ali Gaye (Opt-out)
EDGE Desmond Little (Transfer portal)
LB Kolbe Fields (Transfer portal)
LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
CB Sevyn Banks (Injury)
CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (Transfer portal)
CB Damarius McGhee (Transfer portal)
CB Mekhi Garner (Opt-out)
S Derrick Davis Jr. (Transfer portal)
QB Daniels played hurt at the end of the regular season. Following the finale against Texas A&M in late-November, he was in a walking boot. And though Daniels was able to start the SEC Championship a week later, he limped off the field and didn't finish it.
After the game, HC Brian Kelly confirmed Daniels aggravated the ankle injury. Kelly said Daniels would need 7-10 days to fully recover. Ostensibly, that should mean Daniels will be healthy for this game. If he's not, QB2 Garrett Nussmeier will draw the start. That's undoubtedly a downgrade, though Nussmeier did flash arm talent in his looks this fall.
WR Jenkins declared for the NFL Draft and said he won't play in the bowl game. He posted 27 catches for 404 yards and six TD in 2022. WR Lacy suffered an undisclosed injury against Texas A&M and left the game early. WR Bech's season was interrupted by injuries – he posted 16 catches for 200 yards and one TD. Bech transferred to TCU.
LSU WR Kayshon Boutte, the team's most dangerous receiver, reversed-course on Wednesday and declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out. Boutte previously-announced he would return to school for the 2023 season. WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., will need to play heavy snaps in this game.
EDGE Ojulari declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out. Ojulari was followed by EDGE Gaye and NT Roy, who each made the same decisions. And with that, DT Mekhi Wingo remained as LSU lone remaining starting defensive lineman left standing for the bowl game.
Ojulari formed a scary pass-rushing duo with young LB Harold Perkins this fall – it'll be Perkins' responsibility to pick up the slack in the bowl game. Ward also started, but posted a measly 53.5 PFF grade this fall.
CB Ward and CB Garner also declared and will sit. Garner had 43 tackles and a team-high eight pass deflections in his one year starting at LSU after transferring over from ULL. Garner accepted an invitation to the Shrine Bowl.
CB Bank is questionable with a spinal cord bruise. RB Goodwin is out for the season with a knee injury. WR Hilton Jr. underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in October. DT Smith was shut down in September with a torn ACL.
Purdue
QB Aidan O'Connell (Opt-out)
RB Kobe Lewis (Transfer portal)
RB King Doerue (Injury)
WR Charlie Jones (Opt-out)
WR Elijah Canion (Injury)
WR Broc Thompson (Injury)
TE Payne Durham (Opt-out)
OG Spencer Holstege (Transfer portal)
DT Greg Hudgins III (Transfer portal)
CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
S Chris Jefferson (Personal)
Purdue has been decimated by opt-outs. QB O'Connell, WR Jones, TE Durham, LG Holstege and CB Trice were all starters. All but Holstege declared for the draft and opted-out – Holstege is transferring to UCLA.
QB O’Connell, a second-team All-Big Ten selection, led the conference in the regular season with 290.8 YPG passing. He finished with 22 TD and 3,490 yards this fall.
WR Jones led the nation with 110 catches, adding 1,361 yards receiving and 12 TD, in his first year at the school after transferring from Iowa. Jones was a semifinalist for the 2022 Biletnikoff Award.
TE Durham, a second-team All-Big Ten honoree, posted a 56-560-8 receiving line. Between the defections of O'Connell, Jones, and Durham, a once-scary Purdue passing attack is now toothless. Sixth-year QB2 Austin Burton will start in place of O'Connell, with redshirt junior QB3 Michael Alaimo the backup.
It doesn't help Purdue that WRs Canion and Thompson – expected to be larger contributors this year – were limited to 59 combined snaps in the fall due to injury. It would be surprising if either is back for the bowl.
Unfortunately, the defense didn't escape opt-outs unscathed. CB Trice had 10 pass deflections and two interceptions in 2022. S Jefferson, who began the season as a fellow-starter in the secondary, left the team in October to focus on his mental health.
Coaching news
Former HC Jeff Brohm left to take the head coaching position at his alma mater Louisville. Interestingly, Purdue named his brother, OC Brian Brohm, interim HC for the bowl game. DC Ron English did immediately follow Jeff Brohm to Louisville – English won't coach in this game. Purdue hired Illinois DC Ryan Walters to replace Brohm. Walters is not involved with bowl prep.
Handicap
Another bowl with so many opt-outs that it's hard to have a clean handicap. But our analysis suggests that, in lieu of the opt-outs on both sides, the market has taken its LSU love a little far. Our numbers peg this game LSU -12.0.
LSU suffered massive defections in the receiving corps and on defense. So the Tigers figure to skew even more run-heavy, here, in an effort to not overexpose a depleted receiving corps while leaning into a strength, meanwhile controlling the clock to help the picked-apart defense.
But LSU's run game has health concerns for both QB Daniels and RB Goodwin. And Purdue's run defense (No. 40 success rate) profiles to potentially be able to slow LSU's run game (No. 4) – at least a bit.
Even though Purdue's secondary had losses of its own, Purdue's pass defense profiles to have the advantage over LSU's passing offense due to the latter's receiver room being looted by defections.
So far, the handicap doesn't look so bad for an underdog catching over two touchdowns. But will Purdue be able to move the ball any? With QB O'Connell, WR Jones, TE Durham, and LG Holstege out, Purdue's offense gets chopped down to size. Of course, LSU's defense is out five starters.
The Boilermakers have a veteran backup in QB2 Austin Burton. Burton is not near the thrower O'Connell is. But Burton is a far superior runner, and can complete short-and-intermediate throws. Purdue's offense won't be explosive.