You may already be looking ahead to the semifinals of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, but don't forget about Friday's intriguing slate of bowl games. It is headlined by the Tennessee Volunteers taking on the Clemson Tigers in the Orange Bowl.
Below is our SGP for the Orange Bowl, and also be sure to check out our full Tennessee vs Clemson picks on the side and total.'
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren't correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. We are doing a little bit of both here, as Antonio Williams finding the endzone at least once would obviously work well with a big win for Clemson but doesn't help an under bet. Still, there is no reason why this game can't stay under the total even if Williams scores. Let's break down each of the SGP legs.'
Clemson -9.5 alternate spread (+148)
Only one thing is certain: an orange team is going to win the Orange Bowl. And it's a pretty good bet that the team in question will be Clemson. While both the Tigers and the Volunteers are missing their starting quarterbacks, Clemson is without only one player due to opting out (defensive end Myles Murphy). Tennessee, on the other hand, has seen a few guys exit early – most notably Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman. Combine that with QB Hendon Hooker's season-ending torn ACL and this certainly isn't the UT team that briefly peaked at #1 in the rankings. Clemson, which can make up for Murphy's absence since it is still loaded on the defensive line, ranks 9th national in defensive PPA this season with a top 12 ranking in opposing drive efficiency and opposing touchdown rate (per Football Outsiders). Moreover, the Tigers rank 6th in PFF's pass rush, 16th in opposing EPA per pass and 25th in defensive success rate against the pass (per CFBG raphs). They should be able to contain the Vols' Hooker-less offense and score enough to prevail by double-digits.'