NFL Week 17 best bets
Fourteen games down, two more to go in Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 40.5)
Dave Tuley: When it was announced that the Panthers (6-9) still controlled their own destiny in the NFC South, a lot of people chuckled, but no one is laughing now as they’re within a game of the Buccaneers (7-8) and go for the season sweep on Sunday.
The Panthers dominated the Lions on both sides of the ball in their 37-23 win on Christmas Eve as they ran for a team-record 320 rushing yards, and Sam Darnold added 250 passing yards and a TD. Carolina is 4-2 in its last six games and 5-1 ATS.
Tom Brady pulled another Houdini act in rallying the Buccaneers to a 19-16 OT on Christmas night to stay atop the division. The Bucs’ No. 6-ranked defense continues to keep them in games and rely on Brady to work his late-game magic.
That didn’t work in the first meeting in Week 7 as the Panthers shut down the Bucs until allowing a field goal with 9:33 left in the game on the way to a 21-3 victory. I love getting points with a team that has already shown they can beat the other team.
Pick: Panthers +3
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 40)
Adam Burke: The last two games of the season for the Browns have very little meaning. This was always thought to be a throwaway season to some degree, and last week’s loss officially ended any slim playoff hopes the team had. It's interesting to see how much respect the Browns get by only being a small underdog here, but you have to eliminate a lot of their priors when handicapping their games.
This was a top-10 offense in the NFL when Deshaun Watson took over in Week 13. That could not be further from the case now. Cleveland is 27th in EPA/play and 24th in Success Rate in the four games with Watson. By EPA+CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected), Watson ranks 22nd out of 25 qualified QBs in the last four weeks. Nick Chubb is hurt and the Browns have scored 33 points over the last three games.
The defense has done its part to hang in there, though, holding four of the last five opponents to 325 or fewer yards. Weather has played a role in a few of those games, but the Browns have eight takeaways in the last four games, doubling what they had over the first 12 weeks of the season.
Even with turnovers, the Browns can’t score. Why would they score this week against a Commanders defense that ranks in the top 10? The Browns are also at a huge special teams disadvantage with a Commanders crew that ranks fourth in ST DVOA. There is a case to be made that teasing Cleveland up through 3 and 7 makes a lot of sense, and I think they are a viable candidate in a low-scoring game, but I also think laying -2 with Washington makes a ton of sense.
I can understand the skepticism about Carson Wentz, but he’s no worse than the current state of Watson, and the Commanders have the better defense and special teams.
Pick: Commanders -2
Dave Tuley: The Commanders (7-7-1) are trying to hold onto the last NFC wild-card spot in the middle of a QB controversy. After not playing since Week 6, Carson Wentz replaced an ineffective Taylor Heinicke and went 12-for-16 for 123 yards and a TD in the loss at the 49ers last Saturday. The line didn’t change after Ron Rivera announced Wentz was the starter again.
The Browns (6-9) are 2-2 SU and ATS since Deshaun Watson took over after his suspension, but they’re playing well enough to stay within one score (in fact, they’ve lost by more than 8 points just twice all season), so we’ll use them in our teaser portfolio.
In Sunday’s early games, the best 2-team, 6-point teaser is Browns +8.5/Dolphins +9 and we’ll also use with Seahawks +8 in the afternoon and the Bengals +7 or +7.5 on Monday Night Football (if you like teasing favorites down below a field goal, you can also look at Eagles -0.5, Lions pick-’em or Chargers -0.5).
Pick: Browns +8.5/Dolphins +9 (2-team, 6-point teaser)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 43.5)
Dave Tuley: The Saints (6-9) still have a prayer in the NFC South, but must win their last two games (at Eagles and vs. Panthers) and also have the Buccaneers lose their last two games (vs. Panthers and at Falcons) due to being swept by Tampa Bay this season.