In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 7-7 (-0.54 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 113-96-3 (+7.74 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 40-35
Freedman's NFL Week 17 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 16 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our'BettingPros odds page'on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| TEN | DAL | 11 | 10 | -1 |
| ATL | ARI | -3.5 | -2.25 | 1.25 |
| NE | MIA | -3 | -2.75 | 0.25 |
| HOU | JAX | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| KC | DEN | -12.5 | -12.75 | -0.25 |
| DET | CHI | -6 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| WAS | CLE | -2 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| NYG | IND | -6 | -4.5 | 1.5 |
| TB | CAR | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| PHI | NO | -6.5 | -4.75 | 1.75 |
| LV | SF | 10 | 11.25 | 1.25 |
| SEA | NYJ | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| GB | MIN | -3 | -2.75 | 0.25 |
| LAC | LAR | -6.5 | -8 | -1.5 |
| BAL | PIT | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 |
| CIN | BUF | 1.5 | 0.25 | -1.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Cardinals +3.5 at Falcons
- Browns +2 at Commanders
- 49ers -10 at Raiders
Freedman's NFL Week 17 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Cardinals at Falcons: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Cardinals +3.5
- Betting Percentages: Falcons – 43% bets, 55% money
Cardinals at Falcons: 2022 ATS Records
- Cardinals ATS: 7-8 (-11.0% ROI)
- Falcons ATS: 8-7 (1.8% ROI)
Arizona Cardinals: Notable Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (31.6% ROI) on road
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 24-13-2 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-5-2 ATS (43.1% ROI) as road underdog
Atlanta Falcons: Notable Trends
- HC Arthur Smith: 4-10 ATS (36.3% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Arthur Smith: 4-5 ATS (6.3% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Arthur Smith: 1-4 ATS (52.2% ROI) as home favorite
Cardinals at Falcons: Team Statistics
Cardinals Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.075 | 28 | 0.078 | 30 | 2 |
| Total SR | 40.5% | 27 | 49.3% | 32 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | -16.4% | 29 | 11.6% | 30 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.072 | 30 | 0.144 | 30 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 41.1% | 29 | 50.9% | 31 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | -10.5% | 29 | 21.6% | 30 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.8% | 15 | 4.1% | 32 | 17 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 20 | -0.002 | 25 | 5 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 24 | 47.2% | 32 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.6% | 27 | 1.0% | 23 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 26 | 5.00 | 31 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.8 | 26 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 21 | 23.3 | 23 | 2 |
Falcons Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.005 | 16 | 0.019 | 21 | 5 |
| Total SR | 46.0% | 8 | 48.1% | 31 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | 4.9% | 14 | 5.6% | 25 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.01 | 21 | 0.054 | 16 | -5 |
| Dropback SR | 45.8% | 16 | 51.1% | 32 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | 7.2% | 17 | 7.6% | 19 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.1% | 26 | 6.0% | 26 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | -0.045 | 21 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 46.2% | 3 | 42.9% | 23 | 20 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.6% | 4 | 2.3% | 27 | 23 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.78 | 4 | 4.48 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.6 | 20 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 21 | 17 | 26.1 | 30 | 13 |
Cardinals at Falcons: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Colt McCoy
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.9 | 25 |
Career: Colt McCoy
- AY/A: 5.9
- QB Elo per Game: -47.6
2022: Desmond Ridder
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.8 | 47 |
Career: Desmond Ridder
- AY/A: 5.3
- QB Elo per Game: -92.9
Key Takeaway: Desmond Ridder … Is a Favorite?
The Falcons opened the year 6-0 ATS and 3-3 on the moneyline. They were an overachieving cover machine for the first six weeks of the season.
But since then they are 2-7 ATS and on the moneyline. The market has caught up to the Falcons, and they have regressed as the season has progressed, especially on offense — and especially since switching to third-round rookie QB Desmond Ridder after the Week 14 bye.
- Weeks 1-6: 24.3 points per game | 2.49 points per drive | 6.7 yards per pass attempt
- Weeks 7-16: 18.8 points per game | 1.86 points per drive | 6.1 yards per pass attempt
- Weeks 15-16: 13.5 points per game | 1.35 points per drive | 4.7 yards per pass attempt
Even though the Cardinals are a bottom-five team by my power ratings, they have a clear edge with QB Colt McCoy (concussion), who has cleared the league’s protocol and will start after missing last week. In the post-Browns era, McCoy has a 6.4 AY/A, and in his two years with the Cardinals he has a 6.1 AY/A. He’s a competent veteran backup, which is more than we can say for Ridder, who is a downgrade on former starter Marcus Mariota.
The Falcons should be favored — but they shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal. They’re 1-2 ATS as favorites this year, and their one ATS win was against the Bears in Week 11, when QB Justin Fields injured his shoulder.
With a raw and unproven rookie quarterback, the Falcons are laying too many points.
Best Line: Cardinals +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.25
- Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV:'FOX
Browns at Commanders: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Browns +2
- Betting Percentages: Commanders – 52% bets, 88% money
Browns at Commanders: 2022 ATS Records
- Browns ATS: 7-7-1 (-4.1% ROI)
- Commanders ATS: 7-7-1 (-4.4% ROI)
Washington Commanders: Notable Trends
- QB Carson Wentz: 26-36 ATS (13.1% ROI for faders) since 2017 knee injury
- QB Carson Wentz: 14-21 ATS (15.8% ROI for faders) as favorite since 2017 knee injury
Browns at Commanders: Team Statistics
Browns Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.009 | 15 | -0.038 | 8 | -7 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 18 | 40.9% | 2 | -16 |
| Total DVOA | 7.5% | 11 | -3.5% | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.019 | 17 | 0.009 | 10 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 45.5% | 17 | 43.0% | 3 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.4% | 11 | 3.7% | 16 | 5 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 10 | 7.5% | 12 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 7 | -0.110 | 8 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 43.2% | 7 | 37.7% | 4 | -3 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.2% | 8 | -12.8% | 11 | 3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 19 | 4.10 | 7 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 18 | 5.3 | 12 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 21.5 | 14 | 20.9 | 12 | -2 |
Commanders Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.055 | 26 | 0.036 | 25 | -1 |
| Total SR | 41.6% | 24 | 45.4% | 23 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -11.2% | 28 | 5.3% | 24 | -4 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.036 | 25 | 0.009 | 10 | -15 |
| Dropback SR | 43.2% | 23 | 45.6% | 16 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | -2.7% | 26 | 3.5% | 15 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 22 | 7.0% | 15 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 20 | 0.074 | 32 | 12 |
| Rush SR | 39.5% | 22 | 45.2% | 30 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.1% | 28 | 7.4% | 30 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.32 | 20 | 4.94 | 29 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 25 | 5.6 | 20 | -5 |
| Points per Game | 19 | 24 | 22.9 | 21 | -3 |
Browns at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Deshaun Watson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.3 | 11 |
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.3
- QB Elo per Game: 53.7
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.015 | 30 |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 26 |
| QBR | 32.6 | 31 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.5 | 36 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -6.3
Key Matchup: Browns Pass Defense vs. Commanders QB Carson Wentz
In Weeks 1-11, the Browns defense was terrible. Key players were in and out of the starting lineup due to injuries, and they allowed teams to score at will against them. But since Week 12 they have been a brick wall.
- Weeks 1-11: 26.9 points per game | 0.123 EPA per play (No. 31)
- Weeks 12-17: 14.8 points per game | -0.133 EPA per play (No. 3)
They’ve been especially strong in pass defense over the past five games, ranking No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.205).
Granted, their five most recent games have come against QBs Tom Brady, Kyle Allen, Joe Burrow, Tyler Huntley and Andy Dalton — but Carson Wentz isn’t much (if any) better than that cohort of passers. This year, he has a mediocre 6.3 AY/A. Since 2020, he has the same milquetoast 6.3 AY/A. That’s who he is at this point in his career.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson is hardly the consummation devoutly to be wished. Even excluding last week’s weather-impacted game, he still has just a 6.2 AY/A since returning to action in Week 13. But in his four years with the Texans he had a strong 8.6 AY/A. He’s still a better quarterback than Wentz, whom I expect will struggle against the rejuvenated Browns pass defense.
Best Line: Browns +2 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Browns +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Browns -0.25