The biggest story this week will be quarterback changes and injuries, which are already affecting spreads and totals across multiple games. Here's our analysis of the NFL odds and lines for Week 17.
Mike White is returning from injury for the New York Jets and we have already seen some movement in the Jets line as a result. While we know who will be the starting quarterback for the Jets in Week 17, we're still unsure of who will be under center for several other teams. Injury reports for several teams will have a significant impact on the Week 17 betting lines .
Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Denver Broncos, one thing is certain, Nathaniel Hackett will not be delivering the pregame speech. After barely surviving the first 16 weeks of the season, Hackett was fired by the Denver Broncos on Monday.
Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 17, and how we think they'll move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
NFL Week 17 Odds and Lines: Thursday
Spread: Cowboys -9.5
It was a big win for the Dallas Cowboys over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, even though it was against the Eagles' backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans have lost five consecutive games and have fallen to second place in the AFC South. Every sportsbook has the Cowboys as a 9.5-point favorite, except for FanDuel, which has the Cowboys as a 10-point favorite.
Total: 42. 5
After opening at 44.5, the total has fallen two points to 42.5. It's not surprising to see the total drop, considering the Titans scored only 14 points against the Houston Texans with Malik Willis leading the offense. On 23 attempts, Willis was able to throw for only 99 yards, and he will face an even tougher opponent in Week 17.
NFL Week 17 Odds and Lines: Sunday
Spread: Falcons -3
Initially, the Atlanta Falcons laying 3 points with rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder starting might seem high. However, I expect this line to move in favor of the Falcons and make them a bigger favorite. It's possible that the Arizona Cardinals will draw more money than we're expecting from the public following their overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the direction of this spread won't be determined by that.
Total: 39.5
The total opened at 40 and has fallen half a point to 39.5. Quarterback Colt McCoy should be a ble to return for the Cardinals offense from his concussion in Week 17, which could cause this total to increase slightly.
Spread: Lions -5
The Detroit Lions had a great opportunity to improve their playoff chances in Week 16, but instead they were blown out by the Carolina Panthers. We've seen the lookahead line for this spread come down 1.5 points to Lions -5. I anticipate that this line will return closer to the lookahead line of Lions -6.5 as the week progresses.
Total: 51.5
The total has already moved two points towards the Over from 49.5 to 51.5. With the Lions allowing 320 rushing yards to the Panthers, the market will be confident that the Bears offense will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Lions.
Spread: Chiefs -13
At this point in the season, no one in their right mind would be willing to risk any money on the Denver Broncos. I'm not sure if the sportsbooks will be able to make t his spread high enough. The numbers indicate there's value in backing the Broncos as a 13-point underdog, but how can you handicap a team that might quit? It'll be interesting to see how this spread changes throughout the week.
Total: 43.5
The total opened at 43.5 and remains there, but we should see some movement throughout the week. Russell Wilson was benched by the Broncos on Sunday, but it's still unclear whether he will start in Week 17. The total will fluctuate slightly depending on who the Broncos name as their starting quarterback, either Brett Rypien or Wilson.
Spread: Dolphins -1
Tua Tagovailoa's MVP talk seems like it was a lifetime ago, and the Miami Dolphins are at risk of missing the playoffs. The Dolphins play the New England Patriots in Week 17 with massive playoff implications, and the Dolphins opened as 1-point favorites. Once Sunday comes around, I believe we'll see this line flip and the Patrio ts will go off as the favorites.
Total: 43.5
For a brief period of time, the total moved to 44 but then was lowered back to 43.5. Back in Week 1, the Patriots and Dolphins met in Miami and the total closed at 46.5.
Spread: Giants -3
There has been no movement in the spread since the Giants opened as a 3-point favorite. This spread may move depending on how the Indianapolis Colts perform on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers. As far as I'm concerned, I think Giants -3 is an accurate line, and unless the Colts pull off a huge upset or get blown out, we shouldn't see much movement in the opening line.
Total: 40.5
The Colts will start Nick Foles at quarterback for the first time this season, and they'll be without their star running back Jonathan Taylor. No doubt, how the Colts' offense moves the ball against the Chargers will have an impact on the total for their Week 17 game against the Giants.
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Minshew performed admirably as a stand-in for the injured Jalen Hurts during Week 16 against the Cowboys, but we should see this line move if Minshew is named the starter. The Eagles should be closer to a 4-point favorite than a 6.5-point favorite with Minshew at quarterback.
Total: 43.5
At DraftKings, the total opened at 43.5, but has been bet up to 44. The other sportsbooks have been holding steady at 43.5, with only DraftKings moving to 44. Whichever quarterback the Eagles name as their starting quarterback in Week 17 will have an impact on this total.
Spread: Buccaneers -3
In the NFC South, this is an important game for the Panthers and Buccaneers, as a win will give the Panthers sole possession of first place with one game remaining. The look-ahead line was Buccaneers -7, so the change from that to Buccaneers -3 represents a major swing.
Total: 40
Imagine if I told you at the beginning of the season that we're more concerned about the Buccaneers' offense not scoring many points than the Panthers'. Sam Darnold and the Panthers rushing attack scored 37 points against the Lions in Week 16, while the Buccaneers offense struggled once again under Tom Brady. The Bucs were only able to score three points against the Panthers in Week 7.
Spread: Commanders -2.5
There is a common theme throughout the Week 17 lines in which we don't know who will start at quarterback for several teams. In Week 16, the Commanders benched Taylor Heinicke in favor of Carson Wentz after turning over the offense to Heinicke several weeks ago. Regardless of the starting quarterback, I don't expect this spread to change significantly. In terms of what they're worth to the point spread, Wentz and Heinicke are statistically similar.
Total: 40.5