Week 16 of the NFL season concludes with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Our NFL expert, Clevta, has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Clevta’s'Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts best bet: Colts +4 (-110)
You might not love taking the Colts after last week, and I get it, but there is no team you can trust less when laying over a field goal more than the Chargers. The Colts, as bad as they've ended games the last two weeks, have played pretty well overall, considering they had to face two really good teams on the road in Dallas and Minnesota. They were playing blow-for-blow with Dallas until early in the 4th quarter when a series of random fluky turnovers made the final score look like a beatdown. Getting outscored 58-0 in 4th quarters and overtime in the last two games is an incredible stat. For the season, Indy is 5-3 ATS as a dog and 2-0 at home. This is a team that beat the Chiefs and was leading the entirety of the Eagles game at home until losing in the last minute. They are fully capable of hanging with a Chargers team that is 4-5 ATS and only 6-3 straight up as a favorite of over a field goal the last two seasons.
I don't see a downgrade from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles at all here. Maybe 0.5 points at the absolute most, but how can anyone consider this a downgrade? Ryan is 30th out of 38 QBs in EPA per play and dead last in air yards. He's also a complete statue. Foles started one game last year and went on the road in bad conditions in Seattle and posted an excellent 0.242 EPA per drop back, and they beat the Seahawks as big underdogs. In 7 starts in 2020, Foles posted a -0.051 EPA per play, 1.7 CPOE on 8.1 air yards. That compares to Ryan's -0.053 EPA, and -0.1 CPOE on a league-worst 6.2 air yards. Foles is better and can get out of the pocket and run if need be.