:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71791624/1451440018.0.jpg "NFL picks, Week 16: Packers vs. Dolphins spread, over/under, player prop bets")
The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins will open up the NFL's Christmas Day slate with a matchup at 1:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The Packers won consecutive games to get to 6-8 on the season, while the Dolphins dropped to 8-6 after losing three consecutive games.
Here, we'll take a look at our picks for best bets for the Packers-Dolphins in Week 16 of the NFL season.
Packers vs. Dolphins odds
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Point total: 50
Moneyline: Dolphins -180, Packers +155
Our picks, best bets
Pick against the spread: Packers +3.5
The Dolphins have a big advantage with two more days of rest than Green Bay, and they don't have to travel. However, the Packers are in must-win mode to sneak their way into the playoffs, so that's where we'll go especially if you can get more than a field goal.
Over/under: Under 50
Miami throws the ball on 62.3% of snaps, which is the fourth most in the NFL. However, the easiest way to beat the Packers is by keeping the ball on the ground. On the other side, Green Bay has the duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, so there could be plenty of rushing attempts for both offenses, which will limit the number of possessions in this matchup.
Player prop: Tua Tagovailoa Under 273.5 passing yards
To add more context to the over/under section, the Packers rank 30th in opponent yards per rush attempt, so it feels like this is a game where the Dolphins rely on the rushing attack more than usual. Tagovailoa threw for a combined 379 yards over his last two games, and this isn't the spot where he'll be able to put up huge numbers.