This Saturday for Christmas Eve we are gifted 12 NFL games. Weather will have a huge impact on quite a few games, particularly, New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns. This game is set at the lowest total all season (32.5). The highlight of the day is certainly the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys, with Gardner Minshew stepping in for the injured Jalen Hurts. Green Bay tries to keep their playoff hopes alive as they travel down to Miami in Saturday's primetime matchup. I'm coming off my best weekend of the season(+6.21U) and hope to continue that streak into Week 16.
Joe Burrow (CIN) over 9.5 rushing yards (-120)
This goes back to my philosophy on targeting mobile QBs against teams with very good pass rush ability and blitz very little. The logic is that QBs with the ability to get out in space will take off when they feel pressure from the front 4 and the additional defenders in the back half of the field make it harder to find open targets. Good quarterbacks when faced with pressure from the blitz will often pick up where it is coming from and get the ball out. So where does New England fall into that category? They generate pressure more than any team in the league (26.8% of snaps) and they rank 15th overall in blitz rate. The Patriots secondary? Ranked 2nd overall in Pass DVOA.