NFL Week 16 best bets
Welcome to Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47.5)
Adam Burke: The Giants have allowed the ninth-fewest targets to tight ends but have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards. Tight ends have 88 targets with 65 catches for 732 yards, an average of 11.3 yards per catch. The Vikings really seem to like having TJ Hockenson as a weapon, and his receiving yards total is 49.5 this week.
Hockenson has only hauled in 39 catches, but he’s been targeted 57 times. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been accurate enough throwing to his tight end, but he’s had 17 targets over the last two games. As long as he can haul in four of five passes, something he had done in all six games with Minnesota prior to last week, there should be some opportunities for chunk plays against this Giants defense.
Against the Lions, who have similar numbers against tight ends, Hockenson had six catches for 77 yards and his highest yards per target of the season as a member of the Vikings. That sets him up for a big game this week.
Pick: TJ Hockenson OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 32.5)
Adam Burke: The weather conditions will be downright miserable for the Saints and Browns game on Saturday with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph, below-zero wind chills and snow blowing and drifting around. Neither team is going to enjoy it very much, but the total of 32.5 is about as low as an NFL game can possibly go.
It’s probably still going to stay under that, but my thought here is to look at the Browns -2.5, even if you have to pay -120 to do it (shop around!). Cleveland has not had the greatest running game lately, but the Saints haven’t been able to run the football for most of the season. New Orleans has been bottom five in Rush EPA, while the Browns remain a top-10 unit, despite some of their recent performances.
The Saints are 15th in Dropback EPA and sixth in Pass Success Rate, which is great, but not with the weather conditions that are coming on Saturday. The Browns' offense has been pretty bad with Deshaun Watson, but they can get back to their bread and butter here. Also, Watson is infinitely more mobile than Andy Dalton, which can only help in a game like this.
Pick: Browns -2.5
Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
Dave Tuley: The Lions (7-7) started the season 1-6 but have reversed that by going 6-1 (and a perfect 7-0 ATS) in their last seven games. They have a legitimate shot at the playoffs as they’re tied with the slumping Seahawks (who have to play the Chiefs on Saturday) in a chase to catch the Commanders for the NFC’s last wild-card spot.
The Panthers have clawed their way into the NFC South race as they only trail the Bucs by one game, but they missed a golden opportunity in Week 15 with a 24-16 loss to the Steelers as 3-point home favorites after winning three of their previous four games.
This line is too short for me to take the Panthers ATS, but we’ll tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The Detroit defense still allows 398.5 yards per game, ranking No. 31 in the league ahead of only the Vikings, so the Panthers should be able to keep this a one-score game.
Pick: Panthers +9/Saints +8.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39.5) at New England Patriots
Wes Reynolds: “This might be one of the dumbest teams I’ve ever seen.” That was the call from former Patriots quarterback and current radio color commentator Scott Zolak immediately after the Raiders defeated New England with the ‘Immaculate Interception’ when Chandler Jones picked off an inexplicable pass across the field from Jakobi Meyers. Now the Patriots are 7-7 and fighting an uphill battle to make the AFC Playoffs.
Cincinnati comes to Foxboro on a 19-3 ATS run dating back to Week 15 of the 2021 season. The Bengals gained 237 yards on only 3.8 ypp in Tampa last Sunday, but still won 34-23. Cincinnati was down 17-0 at one point, but Tampa Bay turned it over five consecutive times (once on downs with a fake punt, two Tom Brady interceptions, and two fumbles) to begin the second half.
The Bengals bring their No. 5 DVOA Offense to New England to take on a Patriots team that ranks No. 2 in DVOA Defense. The Pats also rank third in sacks with 48, and the Bengals have allowed the 9th most sacks at 40, so expect Joe Burrow to receive a great deal of pressure.
New England and Bill Belichick have had to live with the humiliating defeat in Las Vegas all week and will be motivated to atone for the embarrassment. More often than not, I will take an underdog at home with the better defense, and that is what we have here with the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots +3.5
Buffalo Bills (-8, 39.5) at Chicago Bears
Danny Burke; Surprise, surprise. The late December weather conditions in Chicago will be far from ideal. The forecast calls for sub-10-degree temperatures with winds up to 20 mph. This has moved the total from 45.5 to 40. Despite missing a higher number, there is still an avenue for betting this game UNDER That is the case not only because of the horrid weather conditions, but just from a pure matchup/statistical standpoint. Chicago is averaging the most rush attempts per game (34.6), and the Bills rank 3rd against the run according to DVOA. The Bills limit opponents to just 4.4 yards per carry (T-8th) and 106 total rushing yards per game (6th). Justin Fields contributes to a lot of the Bears’ run success, but he can only do so much. And especially when you look at the passing effort, he is limited. Bears Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy is allowing Fields to throw the ball just 21.5 times per game (32nd), which has Fields averaging just 13 complet ions per game, the fewest in the NFL. Those numbers are with a majority of games not being affected by intense winds. So imagine what his stat line will look like with that factored in.
Additionally, Chicago will have trouble scoring against this Buffalo defense that not only thrives against the run but also thrives in the red zone by limiting opponents to scoring a touchdown just 46% of the time inside of it (3rd). Furthermore, the Bears have lost confidence in their kicker Cairos Santos, and it’d be hard to imagine that gets regained in a wind-filled atmosphere. As for the Bills, well, they have a very inefficient running game, which they may need to rely on more so because of the weather conditions. And while Matt Eberflus’ defense is arguably one of the worst, they may be able to contain Josh Allen and company early on in this game before they inevitably make adjustments toward the back half. The full game total has altered drastically enough to where it’s not as tempting, so I’m looking at a better bang for my buck.
Pick: First Half Total UNDER 21.5 (-115)
Dave Tuley: Bills (11-3) remain atop the AFC thanks to holding the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed with their earlier Week 6 win over the Chiefs. However, we’ve had plenty of success fading them against the spread throughout the season.
Even though they have the No. 2 offense in yards per game and No. 9 in total defense, the Bills still tend to let teams stick around and are only 6-8 ATS, including failing to cover the last two games in wins over the Jets and Dolphins.
And here come the Bears, who are 3-11 but have been more competitive than that when Justin Fields is on the field, including covering in a 25-20 loss to the Eagles on Sunday when they were also 9-point dogs.
Pick: Bears +8
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 35.5)
Dave Tuley: We gave out the Falcons +7 as our top early NFL Week 16 play of the week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night, and we’re happy to see the line climbing higher. The assumption out there has been that Lamar Jackson would be returning from his knee injury this Saturday, but he missed his eighth straight practice on Wednesday, so we’re happy to take the points being offered, especially if he doesn’t play.
And, even if he does play, we’re assuming he’ll be less than 100% and maybe won’t take as much advantage of the Falcons’ No. 28 defense as he would if healthy. Atlanta lost Desmond Ridder’s debut at the Saints, but they did cover as 4-point dogs in the 20-17 loss, which is all we’re looking for them to do here.
Best Bet: Falcons +6.5
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 37.5)
Wes Reynolds: The Commanders outplayed the Giants last Sunday night (and also two weeks prior in a 20-20 tie), out-gaining them 387-288 and having a 6.7-4.6 ypp edge. However, Washington ended up with a 20-12 defeat due to two Taylor Heinicke fumbles and partially because of an egregious missed pass interference call on the final drive. So, the Commanders should have gone 2-0 vs. the Giants, but they had to settle for 0-1-1. Now they find themselves a game back of the G-Men in the playoffs and are clinging to the final Wild Card spot.
On the other side, the 49ers have locked up the NFC West and still have an outside chance of earning one of the top two seeds in the NFC despite having to make this run to the playoffs down to its third quarterback, Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft Brock Purdy.
The 49ers had gone just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite coming into this season, but Kyle Shanahan has gone 5-1 in that role in 2022.
Points should be at a premium here with a low total of 37/37.5. The 49ers’ defense ranks No. 1 in Total Defense DVOA, while the Commanders are 10th (7th over the last six weeks). This number looks a bit high with Washington off a deceptively bad performance in a prime-time game.
Pick: Commanders +7
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 46.5)
Adam Burke: Gardner Minshew may not be Jalen Hurts, but he’s a guy that can sling it a bit and is one of the better backups in the league. The Eagles are not a ruined team because Hurts can’t go. They have to change their offensive plans a little bit because Minshew isn’t the runner that Hurts is, but he’s got a lot of talent at the skill positions to work with in this matchup.
The Cowboys have had some big blowout wins that have made their numbers look a bit better than they are. What I like about Philly in this game is that the Jaguars just passed for over 300 yards and racked up more than 500 yards on the Cowboys with Doug Pederson on the sidelines. Nick Sirianni was the offensive coordinator under Frank Reich, who was Pederson’s OC with the Eagles.
Five points is a little bit too many here in this game I think. You’ve got Minshew in an emotional spot following the passing of his college coach Mike Leach and an Eagles team that has a lot to play for in what I call the “Superstar Subtraction Theory”. It can’t necessarily be quantified, but everybody typically tries to do a little bit more when a star is out and that looks like the case for the Eagles this week in a game I think they can win outright. I’ll take the five points to be safe.