The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 49-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 58-52 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 70.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+17.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 46% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 56% ROI)
• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 40 games at home (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games at home (+11.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 28 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+10.55 Units / 14% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 59 away games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 8% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 105 games (+14.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 45 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 38% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 49-61 against the Run Line (-21.1 Units / -14.34% ROI).

• 49-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.2 Units / -12.9% ROI
• 50-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -9.41% ROI
• 56-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.24% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-52 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 4.57% ROI).

• 62-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 4.01% ROI
• 55-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 1.03% ROI
• 49-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -9.26% ROI

Edward Cabrera: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitless in 14 AB’s against Edward Cabrera this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 51% (18/35) against Edward Cabrera this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has allowed a slugging percentage of .000 (0 TB / 14 ABs) this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .407 — 100th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has a strikeout rate of 47% (8 SO in 17 PAs) this month (1 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 7% (4 SO in 60 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (10th lowest)– 16th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (sixth highest among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (280/479) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .176 (12-for-68) against Kyle Gibson on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 95th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

  
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