NFL Week 16 Best Bets and recaps
Wednesday was mostly spent finishing up yesterday’s column in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Fortunately, it appears I just had a good, old-fashioned 24-hour flu bug as I was already feeling 100% by the afternoon and back to keeping track of all the breaking news on NFL Week 16.
And then I felt even better as I easily won my Best Bet of the day on Western Kentucky +4.5 (and +3.5) against South Alabama as Austin Reed (497 passing yards, 4 TDs) came through as predicted as the Hilltopper jumped out to 24-0 lead and coasted to a 44-23 victory in the New Orleans Bowl. That improved our record to 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%) with our daily top play the last 55 days. Let’s get to those Tuesday’s recaps and Wednesday’s plays. Western Kentucky was also one of our weekly Sunday night plays from “The Greg Peterson Experience” (and also given out in these columns and in the VSiN email updates) that improved to 32-15 ATS (68.1%) since the start of football season and 19-6 (76%) since the start of November. Let’s get to the rest of the Wednesday recaps as well as our Best Bets for Thursday. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll rerun our 3,500-word breakdown of the full NFL Week 16 schedule with updates based on current lines.Wednesday Recaps
CFB: Western Kentucky (+3.5) routed South Alabama 44-23 in New Orleans Bowl as the game went Over the betting total of 58 points. Overall in bowl season, faves still lead 8-5 SU, but dogs improved to 8-5 ATS thanks to Miami-Ohio, North Texas and Liberty covering in SU losses. Unders still lead 7-5-1.
CBB: San Francisco routed No. 25 Arizona State 97-60 Wednesday after jumping out to leads of 9-0 and 26-3, but it was only a minor upset as the Dons were 2.5-point home underdogs. Boston College (+9.5) upset No. 21 Virginia Tech 70-65 in OT as 9.5-point home dog.
NBA: Faves went 6-5 SU and ATS Wednesday with upsets by the Pacers (+9.5 in 117-112 win at Celtics), Bulls (+5 in 110-108 win at Hawks), Thunder (+3.5 in 101-98 win vs. Blazers), Raptors (+2 in 113-106 win at Knicks) and Magic (+1 in 116-110 win at Rockets). Home teams went 6-5 SU and ATS. Overs led 6-5.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 300-167 SU with 9 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 236-216-15 ATS (52.2%). Home teams lead 290-186 SU and 242-219-15 ATS (52.4%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 238-233-5 (50.5%).
NHL: Faves went 4-3 Wednesday (after going 8-0 on Tuesday. The upsets were by the Red Wings (+125 vs. Lightning), Oilers (+125 at Stars) and Devils (+119 at Panthers). Road teams 4-3. Over/Unders split 3-3-1 with the push in the Predators’ 4-2 win at the Blackhawks with a total of 6 goals. On the season, faves lead 310-198 with 15 PKs. Home teams lead 270-249 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 258-245-20.
Thursday Best Bets
Jaguars +8/Under 43.5 at Jets: You can see my full writeup below, but we love that the line continues to go up on the Jets for no real reason, so we can now tease the Jags up to +8, though I’m tempting to wait to see if the Jets go to -2.5 and we can capture another number at +8.5.
Flames -110 at Kings: I’m glad the lines continued to move in Thursday Night Football game so I could make that my top play of the day as there are three swagger/anti-swagger plays between the NBA and NHL and I was having a hard time deciding which one to make my Best Bet. Let’s do with the Flames as my second choice as a swagger play after snapping a 6-game losing streak on Tuesday. I’ll also play the Islanders +140 at the Rangers, who just had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday. In the Association, the Wizards are +6.5 at the Jazz after snapping a 10-game losing streak on Tuesday.
Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” where we break down the complete NFL Week 16 card with our “takes” on each game, and even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a given matchup, we give our “pool play strategy,” especially for those in contests where they have to make a pick on every game.
We hope to continue our winning ways after we won our top plays in NFL Week 15 on the Dolphins +7.5, Texans +14, Giants +5 on Sunday night and our top 2-point, 6-point teaser on the Lions +1.5/Titans +9. Our only loss was on the Rams +7 (oh, and an ill-advised total on Falcons-Saints Over 43.5). All in all, a great weekend that we hopefully can continue into the home stretch of the season. So, let’s get to the NFL Week 16 schedule, along with updates based on current lines as we try to time our plays to get maximum value. .Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5)
The Jets (7-7) are currently tied with the Patriots for the last AFC wild-card spot with the Jaguars (6-8) just one game back (and the Jaguars one game behind the Titans in the AFC South), so this Thursday nighter is much more important than anyone would have thought before the season. The Jaguars have back-to-back upsets of the Titans and Cowboys and are starting to live up to their potential that we saw flashes of earlier in the year. The Jets are leaking jet fuel – or at least some oil – with three straight losses and dropping four of their last five. QB Mike White hasn’t been cleared to play, so Zach Wilson is going to start again. It’s interesting to note the move to the former first-round pick caused the line to move to Jaguars being favored at some books, but it’s now back to Jets -1.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. With the Jets’ offensive woes but a No. 3 defense to stand up to Trevor Lawrence and the resurgent Jaguars’ offense, I was go ing to give out Under 37.5, but the total went as low as 36 before going back up to 37.5. I think the smarter play is to use a 2-team, 6-point teaser to give a little more wiggle room up to Under 43.5 along with taking the Jaguars up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 and getting more than a TD.Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5/Under 43.5 in 2-point, 6-point teaser (pool play: Jaguars in all my rare contests that use Thursday Night Football).
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
These teams have both been “doing it with mirrors” all season and were looking like they were being exposed recently, but then the Vikings pulled out the biggest comeback in NFL history on Saturday and the Giants beat the Commanders on Sunday Night Football to solidify their spot in the NFC wild-card race. Even though the Vikings’ allow the most yards per game (399.2) in the league this season, I still can’t trust the Giants’ offense (averaging just 20.5 points per game) to keep up and cover this short number.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The Saints (5-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 21-18 win vs. the Falcons on Sunday, but they’ve still lost four of their last six; however, they have still pulled within a game of the Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Browns (6-8) are within one game of the last AFC wild-card spot, so there’s more on the line here than one would expect. The line is too short for me to take the Saints plus the points. The Browns, despite a mix of Jacoby Brissett and an unspectacular Deshaun Watson, still have the No. 8 offense at 362.6 yards per game, but the Saints’ No. 11 defense should keep them in the game. This is a good spot to give our teaser portfolio for Saturday. Our top 2-team, 6-point teaser is Saints +8.5/Panthers +9 though you can also use the Saints with the 49ers -1.5 vs. the Commanders, Raiders +8.5 at the Steelers and/or Rams +8 vs. the Broncos.
Best Bet: Saints+8.5/Panthers +9 and other teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests but Browns 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions (-3) at Carolina Panthers
The Lions (7-7) started the season 1-6 but have reversed that by going 6-1 (and a perfect 7-0 ATS) in their last seven games and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs as they’re tied with the slumping Seahawks (who have to play the Chiefs on Saturday) in a chase to catch the Commanders for the NFC’s last wild-card spot. The Panthers have clawed their way into the NFC South race as they only trail the Bucs by one game, but they missed a golden opportunity in Week 15 with a 24-16 loss to the Steelers as 3-point home favorites after winning three of their previous four games. This line is too short for me to take the Panthers ATS, but we’ll tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The Detroit defense still allows 398.5 yards per game, ranking No. 31 in the league ahead of only the Vikings, so the Panthers should be able to keep this a one-score game.
Best Bet: Panthers in teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Lions closer to 60/40 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New England Patriots
This game is getting a lot of attention as the Bengals (10-4) have become a very public team by rebounding from an 0-2 start to go 10-2 in their last 12 games and an even more impressive 11-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Patriots are reeling after the embarrassing way they lost to the Raiders on Sunday and they’ve lost three of four games and are in danger of missing the playoffs. A lot of people are jumping on the Bengals’ bandwagon and making them their play of the week, but all I know is Bill Belichick in “on to Cincinnati” and has always been dangerous off a loss (6-0 ATS the last six times he’s been off a loss and playing a non-division opponent, according to Marc Lawrence of playbook.com and a contestant in the Circa Friday Night Invitational).
Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 (pool play: Patriots 67/33 in ATS contests, though Bengals still 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-9) at Chicago Bears
The Bills (11-3) remain atop the AFC thanks to holding the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed with their earlier Week 6 win over the Chiefs. However, we’ve had plenty of success fading them against the spread throughout the season. Even though they have the No. 2 offense in yards per game and No. 9 in total defense, they still tend to let teams stick around and are only 6-8 ATS, including failing to cover the last two games in wins over the Jets and Dolphins. And here come the Bears, who are 3-11 but have been more competitive than that when Justin Fields is on the field, including covering in a 25-20 loss to the Eagles on Sunday when they were also 9-point dogs.