The Buffalo Bills (11-3) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (3-11) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Bears Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Bears Prediction for Week 16
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 16 game with 79.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread this Week 16 with 51.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 7 away games (+7.15 Units / 86% ROI)
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Bills Best Bets for Week 16:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Bears Best Bets for Week 16:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11% ROI).
- Bills are 11-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 1.57% ROI
- Bills are 4-10 when betting the Over for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Bills are 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -25.16% ROI).
- Bears are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -33.22% ROI
- Bears are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
- Bears are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .318.
The Bills are 17-2 (.895) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .565.
The Bills are 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Bills are 16-4 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .507.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Bears are 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.