Consider these 14 betting systems based on the final three weeks of recent seasons
The NFL truly hits the stretch run with games spanning the Christmas weekend. Just three games remain on each team’s 2022 regular season slate, yet plenty of playoff positioning has yet to be decided. Naturally, all 32 teams have varying goals the rest of the way. Some are battling for division titles and home-field advantage in the playoffs, while others are fighting for their postseason lives. And some teams have already been eliminated and are trying to build momentum for next season. With this in mind, I figured it would be prudent to dig into my NFL database and look back at the last 10 seasons in the NFL, focusing specifically on the final few weeks of the regular season. I looked for systematic betting edges we can use starting this week, taking into account all of these different agendas.
In my opinion, this may be a different season, but the motivating factors that affect teams in 2022 aren’t much different than they were in the last 10 years. As such, we are bound to find some quality info by looking at a data sample of 480 NFL games for the final three weeks of the season over the past decade. As you’ll see, I’ve found some fundamentally sound betting systems that VSiN readers can put to use over the next three weeks.
Last 3 NFL Regular Season Weeks System #1
- NFL home teams favored by double-digits in divisional games have gone 38-3 SU and 26-14-1 ATS (65%) in the final three weeks of the regular season since 2012.
Steve’s thoughts: In most cases, these double-digit home favorites are playing for playoff positioning against lower-level teams. Add the motivating factors of playing at home and against a division rival, and the result is success. There are no games fitting this system this week, but in Week 17, the Chiefs host the Broncos.
Last 3 NFL Regular Season Weeks System #2
- NFL home divisional underdogs of 3-points or less are on a run of 10-6 SU and 13-3 (81%) in their last 16 tries in the final three weeks of the regular season.
Steve’s thoughts: I suspect that a lot of these games feature home underdogs that may still be in the playoff hunt but need big performances to keep those hopes alive. Either that or they are in a position to spoil things for their biggest rivals. Whatever the case, these small home dogs have been great wagers lately. Again, there aren’t any plays fitting the criteria for this weekend, but I could foresee a handful of them in the final two weeks.
Last 3 NFL Regular Season Weeks System #3
- NFL teams coming off upset wins when they were 4-point underdogs or bigger have gone 26-54 SU and 28-49-3 ATS (36.4%) in the final three weeks of the regular season since ’12.