Our Sunday slate is slightly smaller than usual with Saturday having 3 games, but there is a lot to like in the matchups this week. There are 4 games with the total above 46.5 and I've found some soft lines for a change. The NFL player prop market has been extremely sharp this season and I credit the books for allocating resources to focus on this segment as the market has grown vs sides/totals. Let's take a look at my favorite player props of the day!
Check out our full Sunday analysis here.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 11.5 rushing yards (-113)
Lawrence has the unfortunate task of facing this Dallas Cowboys front 4 that is the best in the league in getting to the quarterback. They are # 1 in pressure rate and #7 in hurry rate. They manage to do all of this while being middle of the pack (13th) in blitz rate. So, what does that mean for Lawrence's rushing yards? Well, I'm a firm believer that when QBs see consistent pressure, they are more likely to tuck the ball and take off. For Lawrence, he's more than capable of making plays with his legs, averaging 4.74 Y/A. This line is well below his season average of 16.8 Y/G and I can see a scenario where the Jags are playing from behind. 6 QB's have hit this mark against the Cowboys all season and I expect Lawrence to be the 7th. 1U