Friday was a fun day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as the bowl season kicked off and we moved closer to the continuation of NFL Week 15.
That was especially true as we had to get a head-start on submitting picks for our proxy clients in the Vegas football contests with the three coming up on Saturday, including two that start before the regular Circa Sports Million submission deadline of 4 p.m. PT and all of them before the Westgate SuperContest’s 11:59 p.m. PT deadline. I didn’t have a Best Bet on either of the bowl underdogs on Friday, but I’m in a ton of contests and middled The Bahamas Bowl as I used UAB in all my straight-up contests (with high numbers in the confidence pools) while using Miami-Ohio at +10.5 or +11.5 in all my ATS contests (some of which are also confidence pools). That was a great way to start the bowl season as UAB rallied to win 24-20 but didn’t cover. As for my only bet of the day – and my Best Bet in yesterday’s version of this column – I won with the Atlanta Hawks +2 at the Charlotte Hornets. I was surprised that I was able to fade the Hornets as chalk for the second time this week but gladly took the points as the Hawks coasted to a 125-106 victory. That was our fourth straight Best Best winner this week and improved our record to 32-17-1 ATS (65.3%) the last 50 days or 7 weeks and a day. We love to hear from readers who have been along for the ride. Let’s recap the rest of Friday's betting action and then look for Best Bets on Saturday in both college and pro football. Then, as has become our custom here, I’ll rerun my Wednesday column in which I update my “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule.Friday Recaps
CFB: UAB rallied to beat Miami-Ohio 24-20 in The Bahamas Bowl to kick off bowl season, but did NOT cover as an 11-point favorite (the game stayed Under the betting total of 46 points). No. 24 Troy (+3) rallied to upset No. 25 UTSA 18-12 in the Cure Bowl (stayed Under 56.5). Underdogs start the bowls 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. Unders also swept 2-0.
NBA: Faves/dogs split 5-5 SU Friday with dogs leading 6-4 ATS as the Pacers (+8) covered in 118-112 loss at Cavaliers. The upsets were by the Magic (+13 at Celtics), Timberwolves (+4.5 at Thunder), Knicks (+3 at Bulls), Hawks (+2.5 at Hornets) and Lakers (+2 vs. Nuggets). Road teams went 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS. Over/Unders split 5-5.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 279-151 SU w/ 7 pick-’ems, but dogs still lead 214-201-15 ATS (51.6%). Home teams lead 268-169 SU and 224-198-15 ATS (53.1%). In totals wagering, Overs hold slim lead at 219-213-5 (50.7%).
NHL: Dogs went 2-1 (after going 6-5 on Thursday). The upsets were by the Blues (+190 at Flames) and Coyotes (+160 vs. Islanders). Home teams went 2-1 and Overs were also 2-1. On the season, faves still lead 281-188 with 13 PKs. Home teams lead 248-230 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders' slim lead dipped to 238-227-17.
ICYMI…NFL after Thursday Night Football: On the season, faves lead 131-72-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 108-91-6 ATS (54.3%). Home teams still lead 111-90-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 101-96-6 ATS (51.3%). Unders lead 115-92-2 (55.6%) and primetime Unders improved to 25-18-1 (58.1%) in games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights.
Saturday Best Bets
Dolphins +7 at Bills: This is my favorite play of the day with the Dolphins getting a touchdown in the rematch after proving they can play with the Bills in their first meeting with a 21-19 victory. More details below – and I know playing in Buffalo in December is a lot different than Miami in September – but we still love the Dolphins in this spot.
BYU +4.5 vs. SMU: Like the Dolphins pick, I also gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” last Sunday night when it was BYU +1.5. Now, the Cougars have had plenty of opt-outs, including injured starting QB Jaren Hall that caused this line to go as high as SMU -5. I’ve had a lot of winners over the years with backup QBs being able to jump in and have success in a successful offensive system (as the market typically overadjusts in these situations) and Cade Fennegan at least has some experience before transferring from Boise State. Besides, the SMU defense hasn’t stopped many teams this year, so I expect BYU to be in this the whole game.
Here's the rerun of our full breakdown of NFL Week 15. Updates are in as we track our plays through the weekend: Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule. We went 3-2 ATS with our top plays in Week 14 (wins on Jets, Panthers and Broncos, but losses on Giants and Buccaneers), though we lost our top teasers on the Vikings +8.5/Ravens +7.5 and then lost a Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 teaser on Monday Night Football to wrap up last week/start this calendar week. Still, we’re having a great football season thanks to underdogs still barking at 108-90-6 ATS (54.5%) while our pet plays of home dogs are 43-31-4 ATS (58.1%) while double-digit dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). In addition, we’re been stressing to our readers/followers to listen to our regular appearances on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) as, even with the losing Cardinals/Under teaser, we’re still 29-14 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the season (the majority of which have been early NFL plays) and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) since the start of November (all of which have been on the NFL). Per usual, even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we add our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game.San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s tempting to take a home underdog on Thursday Night Football with the road team obviously facing the obstacle of a short week, but those TNF dogs are only 2-3 ATS this season (though one of the losses was the Rams in the season-opener when neither team was facing a short week). Besides, this line seems short at just over a field goal. The 49ers’ bandwagon is filling up even with third-string Brock “Mr. Irrelevant” Purdy taking over at QB and losing WR Deebo Samuel, though he’s now expected to return before the end of the regular season. I just can’t pull the trigger on a Seattle team that has certainly come down to earth after their surprisingly strong start. Besides, the 49ers’ dominated the Seahawks 27-7 on both sides of the ball back in Week 2 and I don’t see this being any different with the 49ers having the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game and the Seahawks ranking No, 28.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers in all my rare pools that include Thursday Night Football).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is first in the official Nevada rotation on Saturday, but is actually the middle game at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT. It might surprise some people to see the Browns – who haven’t been too impressive since the return of Deshaun Watson – actually favored here, but the Ravens have their own QB problems with Lamar Jackson still expected to be out this week and Tyler Huntley in concussion protocol.. Will he be cleared to play by Saturday, or will undrafted rookie Anthony Brown (Oregon) get his first start? I’m likely to be on the Ravens as a short dog in some way like they were last week at Pittsburgh (possibly in teasers?), but I want to get more information on the QB situation. Please check my updated column later in the week.
Best Bet: Ravens in teasers (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if only offered +2.5 – and around 55/50 in SU pools, though that could flip if Brown starts for Ravens).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
This is the Saturday opener at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. This is another case where I just don’t feel I’m getting enough points with the underdog. The Colts are playing better since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, but they’ve still lost their last three games after he won his debut against the Raiders. The Vikings now have the league’s worst defense at 40.3.7 yards allowed per game (after averaging a whopping 453 yards per game given up in the last three games), but I don’t trust the Colts to take advantage.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Saturday nightcap lost some of its luster with the Dolphins’ Week 14 loss to the Chargers as they fell two games behind the Bills in the AFC East. But it’s still an important Week 15 game as the Bills (10-3) are trying to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye while the Dolphins (8-5) are currently in the thick of the wild-card chase with a one-game lead over four 7-6 teams trying for the last two spots. The Dolphins were tied with the Bills before their current two-game losing streak and still have a chance to catch them with a win here as they would hold the tiebreaker with a season sweep as they beat them 21-19 back in Week 3 in Miami. That fact does make it appear the current 7.5-point spread is too high, especially since they’re only 6-7 ATS on the season (they’ve been favored in every game) and recently failed to cover in wins over the Lions on Thanksgiving and Jets last Sunday. Even though they’re No. 2 in yards per game and No. 9 in yards allowed per game, they tend to let teams stick around and the Dolphins have the weapons to keep up with the Bills again.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 70/30 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
If you took a preseason poll asking which of these teams in this Week 15 matchup would be one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South, not many would have picked the Falcons (5-8), but they’re a full game ahead of the Saints (4-8). The Falcons had a chance to pass the Bucs and actually be leading the division but have lost two straight and four of five. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is now replacing Marcus Mariota and making his first NFL start against the Saints’ No. 11 defense. The Saints were actually 5.5-point road favorites when they beat the Falcons 27-26 (but did not cover) way back in the season opener but have won only three games since. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS while the Falcons are 7-6 ATS (but that’s after a 6-0 ATS start, so they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven games). It’s tempting to take the Falcons as dogs in the rematch. While the Falcons made the move at QB to address the offense, but I’m not getting enough points with a rook ie QB against a pretty solid defense (Saints rank No. 11 in yards allowed per game), plus the Falcons have the No. 30 defense.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1)