Thursday was a day of catching up on some errands in and around the Tuley’s Takes home office as we tried to get those out of the way before NFL Week 15 and entered a lot of bowl contests as those start early on Friday with the Bahamas Bowl at 11:30 a.m. ET/8:30 a.m. Vegas Time.
And then it was another winning day for me and my followers as we won our Best Bet of the day for the third straight day with the Jazz +2 (an anti-swagger play against the Pelicans) to improve to 31-17-1 ATS (64.6%) the last 49 days or 7 weeks. We hope most of you have bought into our “dog-or-pass” philosophy and are enjoying this epic run. In addition to cashing with the Jazz, I’m also proud of the “pass” part of our approach as we had the discipline to resist playing the Seahawks (+3.5) as home underdogs in their 21-13 loss vs. the 49ers as we felt the line was too short and that proved to be correct. Avoiding bad losing bets is just as important as picking winners. Let’s recap the rest of Thursday's betting action and then look for a Best Bet on Friday back in the Association (as I don’t like either of the CFB dogs on the opening day of the bowl season). Then, as has become our custom here, I’ll rerun my Wednesday column in which I give my “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule.Thursday Recaps
NFL: 49ers beat Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 15 and also covered as 3.5-point road favorites. The game stayed Under betting total of 42.5 points.
More NFL: On the season, faves lead 131-72-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 108-91-6 ATS (54.3%). Home teams still lead 111-90-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 101-96-6 ATS (51.3%). Unders lead 115-92-2 (55.6%) and primetime Unders improved to 25-18-1 (58.1%) in games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights.
NBA: Faves went 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS on Thursday with the push by the Heat (-3) in 111-108 win at Rockets. The upset was by the Jazz (+1.5) in 132-129 OT home win vs. the Pelicans. The Grizzlies (-3 vs. Bucks) and Suns (-6.5 at Clippers) covered in easy wins. Home teams went 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. Overs led 3-1.
More NBA: on the season, faves lead 274-146 SU w/ 7 pick-’ems, but dogs still lead 208-197-15 ATS (51.4%); home teams lead 264-163 SU & 221-191-15 ATS (53.6%); in totals wagering, Overs extended slim lead to 214-208-5 (50.7%) .
CBB: No. 22 Wisconsin beat Lehigh 78-56 as the only Top 25 team in action on Thursday night, but fell just short of covering as 23-point home favorite (went just Over betting total of 133 points).
NHL: Underdogs went 6-5 with Penguins-Panthers closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Flyers (+255 at Devils) and Kings (+202 at Bruins). Road teams led 8-4. Unders dominated at 10-2. On the season, faves lead 280-186 with 13 PKs. Home teams lead 246-229 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders extended slim lead (just 4 games above .500 at beginning of the day) to 237-225-17.
Friday Best Bet
Hawks +2 at Hornets: We don’t have any swagger or anti-swagger plays for Friday, but we’ve gonna fade the Hornets (on a 6-game losing streak) like we did on Wednesday night with the Pistons. Again, the Hornets (7-21, 25%) took over the worst record in the Association with that loss but for some reason oddsmakers have made them a home favorite again. It kinda made sense the other night that the Hornets were slight faves over the Pistons, who had the worst record in the league at that time, but I really believe the Hawks (14-15) should be favored here even though they have lost 8 of their last 11 games. I have more faith in Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic and DeAndre Hunter rather than LeMelo Ball, Terry Rozier or whoever the Hornets counter with.
Here's the rerun of our full breakdown of NFL Week 15. Updates are in as we track our plays through the weekend: Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule. We went 3-2 ATS with our top plays in Week 14 (wins on Jets, Panthers and Broncos, but losses on Giants and Buccaneers), though we lost our top teasers on the Vikings +8.5/Ravens +7.5 and then lost a Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 teaser on Monday Night Football to wrap up last week/start this calendar week. Still, we’re having a great football season thanks to underdogs still barking at 108-90-6 ATS (54.5%) while our pet plays of home dogs are 43-31-4 ATS (58.1%) while double-digit dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). In addition, we’re been stressing to our readers/followers to listen to our regular appearances on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) as, even with the losing Cardinals/Under teaser, we’re still 29-14 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the season (the majority of which have been early NFL plays) and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) since the start of November (all of which have been on the NFL). Per usual, even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we add our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game.San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s tempting to take a home underdog on Thursday Night Football with the road team obviously facing the obstacle of a short week, but those TNF dogs are only 2-3 ATS this season (though one of the losses was the Rams in the season-opener when neither team was facing a short week). Besides, this line seems short at just over a field goal. The 49ers’ bandwagon is filling up even with third-string Brock “Mr. Irrelevant” Purdy taking over at QB and losing WR Deebo Samuel, though he’s now expected to return before the end of the regular season. I just can’t pull the trigger on a Seattle team that has certainly come down to earth after their surprisingly strong start. Besides, the 49ers’ dominated the Seahawks 27-7 on both sides of the ball back in Week 2 and I don’t see this being any different with the 49ers having the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game and the Seahawks ranking No, 28.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers in all my rare pools that include Thursday Night Football).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is first in the official Nevada rotation on Saturday, but is actually the middle game at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT. It might surprise some people to see the Browns – who haven’t been too impressive since the return of Deshaun Watson – actually favored here, but the Ravens have their own QB problems with Lamar Jackson still expected to be out this week and Tyler Huntley in concussion protocol.. Will he be cleared to play by Saturday, or will undrafted rookie Anthony Brown (Oregon) get his first start? I’m likely to be on the Ravens as a short dog in some way like they were last week at Pittsburgh (possibly in teasers?), but I want to get more information on the QB situation. Please check my updated column later in the week.
Best Bet: Ravens TBD (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if only offered +2.5 – and around 55/50 in SU pools, though that could flip if Brown starts for Ravens).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
This is the Saturday opener at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. This is another case where I just don’t feel I’m getting enough points with the underdog. The Colts are playing better since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, but they’ve still lost their last three games after he won his debut against the Raiders. The Vikings now have the league’s worst defense at 40.3.7 yards allowed per game (after averaging a whopping 453 yards per game given up in the last three games), but I don’t trust the Colts to take advantage.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Saturday nightcap lost some of its luster with the Dolphins’ Week 14 loss to the Chargers as they fell two games behind the Bills in the AFC East. But it’s still an important Week 15 game as the Bills (10-3) are trying to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye while the Dolphins (8-5) are currently in the thick of the wild-card chase with a one-game lead over four 7-6 teams trying for the last two spots. The Dolphins were tied with the Bills before their current two-game losing streak and still have a chance to catch them with a win here as they would hold the tiebreaker with a season sweep as they beat them 21-19 back in Week 3 in Miami. That fact does make it appear the current 7.5-point spread is too high, especially since they’re only 6-7 ATS on the season (they’ve been favored in every game) and recently failed to cover in wins over the Lions on Thanksgiving and Jets last Sunday. Even though they’re No. 2 in yards per game and No. 9 in yards allowed per game, they tend to let teams stick around and the Dolphins have the weapons to keep up with the Bills again.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 70/30 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
If you took a preseason poll asking which of these teams in this Week 15 matchup would be one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South, not many would have picked the Falcons (5-8), but they’re a full game ahead of the Saints (4-8). The Falcons had a chance to pass the Bucs and actually be leading the division but have lost two straight and four of five. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is now replacing Marcus Mariota and making his first NFL start against the Saints’ No. 11 defense. The Saints were actually 5.5-point road favorites when they beat the Falcons 27-26 (but did not cover) way back in the season opener but have won only three games since. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS while the Falcons are 7-6 ATS (but that’s after a 6-0 ATS start, so they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven games). It’s tempting to take the Falcons as dogs in the rematch. While the Falcons made the move at QB to address the offense, but I’m not getting enough points with a rook ie QB against a pretty solid defense (Saints rank No. 11 in yards allowed per game), plus the Falcons have the No. 30 defense.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1)