In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 4-10 (-7.0 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
I followed up a career-best 10-3 performance in Week 13 with a career-worst 4-10 performance last week. The gambling gods giveth, and they taketh. Pain.
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 98-83-2 (+6.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 37-28
Freedman's NFL Week 15 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 15 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page'on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| SEA | SF | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1 |
| MIN | IND | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| CLE | BAL | -3 | -4 | -1 |
| BUF | MIA | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| NO | ATL | -4 | -4.75 | -0.75 |
| CAR | PIT | -3 | -0.5 | 2.5 |
| HOU | KC | 14 | 14.75 | 0.75 |
| NYJ | DET | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| JAX | DAL | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| CHI | PHI | 9 | 7.75 | -1.25 |
| DEN | ARI | -3 | -2.5 | 0.5 |
| LV | NE | 1 | -1.25 | -2.25 |
| TB | CIN | 3.5 | 3.75 | 0.25 |
| LAC | TEN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| WAS | NYG | -4.5 | -3 | 1.5 |
| GB | LAR | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on four teams at their consensus lines.
- Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers
- Browns -3 vs. Ravens
- Steelers +3 at Panthers
- Packers -7 vs. Rams
Freedman's NFL Week 15 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the four games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff:'Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location:'Lumen Field
- TV: PRIME
49ers at Seahawks: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Seahawks +3.5
- Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 38% bets, 64% money
49ers at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records
- 49ers ATS:'8-5 (17.9% ROI)
- Seahawks ATS:'6-7 (-12.2% ROI)
San Francisco 49ers: Notable Trend
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 21-28-1 ATS (9.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
Seattle Seahawks: Notable Trends
- QB Geno Smith:'18-11-2 ATS (18.6% ROI) as underdog
- QB Geno Smith:'7-3 ATS (35.1% ROI) as underdog with Seahawks
- QB Geno Smith:'14-10 ATS (13.6% ROI) at home
- QB Geno Smith:'5-3 ATS (20.5% ROI) at home with Seahawks
- QB Geno Smith:'8-3 ATS (42.3% ROI) as home underdog
- QB Geno Smith:'3-0 ATS (95.4% ROI) as home underdog with Seahawks
49ers at Seahawks: Team Statistics
49ers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 31 | 0.054 | 23 | -8 |
| Total SR | 40.3% | 32 | 42.9% | 9 | -23 |
| Total DVOA | 8.1% | 10 | 4.7% | 21 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.09 | 29 | 0.107 | 26 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 42.7% | 29 | 45.7% | 14 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | -6.4% | 19 | 2.5% | 26 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.0% | 10 | 7.7% | 11 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.133 | 30 | -0.020 | 23 | -7 |
| Rush SR | 35.2% | 31 | 38.9% | 8 | -23 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.3% | 6 | 2.8% | 16 | 10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 9 | 4.71 | 25 | 16 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 8 | 5.6 | 18 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 24.4 | 8 | 25.7 | 30 | 22 |
Seahawks Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.06 | 6 | -0.094 | 2 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 21 | 40.0% | 1 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | 8.2% | 9 | -17.0% | 2 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.098 | 9 | -0.073 | 5 | -4 |
| Dropback SR | 45.7% | 20 | 43.3% | 7 | -13 |
| Pass DVOA | -10.9% | 23 | -24.5% | 2 | -21 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.1% | 28 | 7.5% | 12 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | 0.010 | 6 | -0.135 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.5% | 20 | 33.6% | 2 | -18 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 7 | -19.5% | 2 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.95 | 32 | 3.66 | 2 | -30 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 4 | 4.8 | 1 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 6 | 15.2 | 1 | -5 |
49ers at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Brock Purdy
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -4.6 | 50 |
Career: Brock Purdy
- AY/A: 6.7
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.146 | 4 |
| AY/A | 8.3 | 5 |
| QBR | 64.5 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.6 | 10 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.6
- QB Elo per Game: -32.4
Key Takeaway: Brock Purdy Is Still a Third-String Seventh-Round Rookie
Last week, Purdy looked great in his first NFL start, completing 76.2% of his passes for a 10.7 AY/A. Sure, he passed for just 185 yards on 21 attempts, but that’s all the 49ers needed him to do in a dominant 35-7 victory over the Buccaneers.
As a result, from last week to this week, I’ve bumped up the 49ers +2.5 points in my power ratings. In the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, they’ve received a similar boost from +0.81 to +2.72.
Even so, they are still just +1.82 points better than the Seahawks on a neutral field in Massey-Peabody.
But here’s the thing: 49ers HC Mike Shanahan has historically underperformed as a favorite, this game is being played in the hostile environment of Lumen Field, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has done well in the past as an underdog (especially at home) — and Purdy (oblique, rib) is still just a third-string seventh-round rookie making his second NFL start while limited with an injury on a short week against a divisional opponent who is pushing to make the playoffs and coming off an embarrassing home loss.
Despite what we saw out of Purdy last week, it’s worth remembering that in his first game with a pass attempt (Week 7 vs. Chiefs) he had a 2.3 AY/A in mop-up duty, and in his first game with extended action (Week 13 vs. Dolphins) he had a 5.5 AY/A.
We have seen other quarterbacks with comparable talent levels perform acceptably in the Shanahan offense with the 49ers.
- C.J. Beathard (2017-20): 58.6% completion rate | 6.5 AY/A
- Nick Mullens (2018-20): 64.5% completion rate | 7.0 AY/A
But these guys are not in the same caliber of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6% completion rate, 8.2 AY/A with Shanahan) — and neither is Purdy.
Given the circumstances, -3.5 points is just too much for a third-string seventh-round rookie quarterback to get on the road — even with Shanahan, and even if he’s better than the typical third-string late-round rookie quarterback.
Best Line: Seahawks +3.5 (-115, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks +2.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022, 4:30 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: NFL
Ravens at Browns: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Browns -3
- Betting Percentages: Browns – 52% bets, 64% money
Ravens at Browns: 2022 ATS Records
- Ravens ATS: 6-7 (-11.9% ROI)
- Browns ATS: 6-6-1 (-4.4% ROI)
Ravens at Browns: Team Statistics
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.011 | 19 | 0.067 | 28 | 9 |
| Total SR | 44.6% | 13 | 45.5% | 23 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 11.3% | 6 | 9.0% | 27 | 21 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.075 | 15 | 0.056 | 14 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 47.7% | 8 | 46.1% | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 10.8% | 2 | 9.5% | 30 | 28 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 21 | 6.8% | 17 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 26 | 0.083 | 32 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 37.6% | 27 | 44.7% | 27 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 8 | 7.2% | 27 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.23 | 21 | 4.93 | 30 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5.7 | 20 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 24.8 | 27 | 15 |
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 5 | 0.009 | 14 | 9 |
| Total SR | 45.6% | 7 | 44.2% | 15 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 9.3% | 8 | -6.4% | 8 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.048 | 19 | 0.071 | 16 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 46.1% | 15 | 47.1% | 22 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.2% | 8 | -15.4% | 7 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 8.4% | 6 | -6 |
| Rush EPA | 0.085 | 1 | -0.127 | 5 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 44.9% | 3 | 38.0% | 5 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.4% | 14 | -5.8% | 9 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 16 | 4.08 | 8 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5.5 | 16 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 23.1 | 13 | 19.2 | 8 | -5 |
Ravens at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Tyler Huntley
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.9 | 47 |
Career: Tyler Huntley
- AY/A: 5.1
- QB Elo per Game: -17.0
2022: Deshaun Watson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.3 | 6 |
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.5
- QB Elo per Game: 58.3
Key Takeaway: Tyler Huntley Is Not Lamar Jackson
I assume that QB Tyler Huntley (concussion) will be able to start this Saturday. He did practice fully on Wednesday, which is a strongly positive sign. But he’s still in the league’s protocol — and part of the protocol (Phase Five) calls for guys to return to practice, which may be a full session that involves contact.
But that doesn’t mean he will be able to practice fully without once again experiencing concussion-like symptoms. And a full practice doesn’t mean that he automatically exits the protocol. At least a couple times this year we’ve seen a player practice fully and then still fail to clear the protocol within a week.
It’s likelier than not that Huntley starts this game, but with one less day than usual to recover he’s not guaranteed to play. There’s a small chance third-string rookie QB Anthony Brown draws the start.
And even if Huntley plays, he’s a significant downgrade from starter Lamar Jackson. At NFElo, Jackson is worth +1.1 points to the spread this year, whereas Huntley is worth -3.9 points.
I more conservatively have the dropoff from Jackson to Huntley at -4.5 points (and I’m thinking about moving it to -4) — but either way the difference is large.
Although they have similar playing styles, Jackson is an MVP-caliber quarterback with a 7.6 AY/A and 7.4% sack rate, whereas Huntley is a limited backup with a 5.1 AY/A and 8.1% sack rate.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson (5.3 AY/A) has underwhelmed in his return to action. But without Jackson, I have the Ravens as 2.5 points worst then the Browns on a neutral field (Massey-Peabody has it at 2.6) — and this game is being played in Cleveland.
The downgrade from Jackson to Huntley is the difference in this game.
Best Line: Browns -2.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Browns -2.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Browns -4
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV:'CBS
Steelers at Panthers: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Steelers +3
- Betting Percentages: Steelers – 43% bets, 65% money
Steelers at Panthers: 2022 ATS Records
- Steelers ATS: 6-6-1 (-3.3% ROI)
- Panthers ATS: 7-6 (3.5% ROI)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Notable Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 49-27-3 ATS (25.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Mitchell Trubisky: 15-11-2 ATS (11.2% ROI) as underdog
Carolina Panthers: Notable Trends
- QB Sam Darnold: 20-30-1 ATS (17.7% ROI for faders) for career
- QB Sam Darnold: 4-8 ATS (30.3 % ROI for faders) as favorite
Steelers at Panthers: Team Statistics
Steelers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.038 | 10 | -0.011 | 11 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.2% | 19 | 44.1% | 13 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -3.7% | 20 | 2.5% | 19 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.085 | 11 | 0.027 | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 13 | 45.0% | 11 | -2 |
| Pass DVOA | -4.3% | 16 | -3.1% | 19 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 16 | 5.8% | 25 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.036 | 12 | -0.065 | 15 | 3 |
| Rush SR | 41.0% | 18 | 42.9% | 23 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | -5.6% | 21 | 4.4% | 20 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.47 | 12 | 4.26 | 15 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 5.3 | 11 | -16 |
| Points per Game | 17.5 | 27 | 22.3 | 13 | -14 |
Panthers Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.013 | 21 | 0.038 | 21 | 0 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 20 | 44.1% | 13 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -16.1% | 29 | -1.8% | 13 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.028 | 22 | 0.09 | 22 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 45.1% | 21 | 46.6% | 18 | -3 |
| Pass DVOA | -1.9% | 13 | -9.8% | 11 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 19 | 5.8% | 24 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.076 | 19 | -0.050 | 20 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 41.8% | 11 | 40.0% | 12 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.4% | 28 | 3.2% | 18 | -10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.75 | 5 | 4.42 | 19 | 14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 5.7 | 20 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 20 | 24 | 22.5 | 14 | -10 |
Steelers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.8 | 27 |
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -20.8
2022: Sam Darnold
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.7 | 36 |
Career: Sam Darnold
- AY/A: 5.8
- QB Elo per Game: -75.9
Key Takeaway: Buy Low on the Steelers, Sell High on the Panthers
The Panthers are coming off a great 30-24 road underdog win against the Seahawks — but 2021 starter-turned-2022 backup-turned-starter Sam Darnold had a 5.8 AY/A in that game on just 24 pass attempts, so it’s not as if he’s the reason they won.
And his career mark is also 5.8 AY/A. He’s still the same-ol’ Sam.
Darnold should almost never be a favorite, and the Panthers are now favorites. As such, they’re 0-3 ATS this year.
Yeah, they’re 6-2 ATS under interim HC Steve Wilks, but after last week I believe the market has now caught up to the Panthers, who have never been favored under Wilks. In his only two games as a favorite (with the 2018 Cardinals), Wilks was 0-2 ATS and failed to cover the spread by a margin of -13.25 points.
This is a prime spot to sell high on the Panthers — and also to buy low on the Steelers, who last week suffered a tough 16-14 loss as home favorites against the Ravens.
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett (concussion) seems likely to miss this week for the Steelers, but backup QB Mitchell Trubisky is a veteran, and he’s better than Darnold despite his faults.
The Steelers have the edge at quarterback and coach, and the Panthers have a mediocre home-field advantage.
If you give me +3 with the Steelers against a bad team, I’ll take it.
Best Line: Steelers +3 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +0.5
- Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 19, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: ESPN