Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule.
We went 3-2 ATS with our top plays in Week 14, though we lost our top teasers on the Vikings +8.5/Ravens +7.5 and then lost a Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 teaser on Monday Night Football to wrap up last week/start this calendar week. Still, we’re having a great football season thanks to underdogs still barking at 108-90-6 ATS (54.5%) while our pet plays of home dogs are 43-31-4 ATS (58.1%) while double-digit dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). In addition, we’re been stressing to our readers/followers to listen to our regular appearances on The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) as, even with the losing Cardinals/Under teaser, we’re still 29-14 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the season (the majority of which have been early NFL plays) and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) since the start of November (all of which have been on the NFL). Per usual, even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we add our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game. At the end, we’ll add our regularly scheduled recaps of Tuesday’s betting action (note: we won our Best Bet on the Golden Knights +110 in their 6-5 win at the Jets) and look for a Best Bet for Wednesday.San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s tempting to take a home underdogs on Thursday Night Football with the road team obviously facing the obstacle of a short week, but those TNF dogs are 2-3 ATS this season (though one of the losses was the Rams in the season-opener when neither team was facing a short week. Besides, this line seems short at just over a field goal. The 49ers’ bandwagon is filling up even with third-string Brock “Mr. Irrelevant” Purdy taking over at QB and losing WR Deebo Samuel, though he’s now expected to return before the end of the regular season. I just can’t pull the trigger on a Seattle team that has certainly come down to earth after their surprisingly strong start. Besides, the 49ers’ dominated the Seahawks 27-7 on both sides of the ball back in Week 2 and I don’t see this being any different with the 49ers having the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game and the Seahawks ranking No, 28.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers in all my rare pools that include Thursday Night Football).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is first in the official Nevada rotation on Saturday, but is actually the middle game at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT. It might surprise some people to see the Browns – who haven’t been too impressive since the return of Deshaun Watson – actually favored here, but the Ravens have their own QB problems with Lamar Jackson still expected to be out this week and Tyler Huntley in concussion protocol.. Will he be cleared to play by Saturday, or will undrafted rookie Anthony Brown (Oregon) get his first start? I’m likely to be on the Ravens as a short dog in some way like they were last week at Pittsburgh (possibly in teasers?), but I want to get more information on the QB situation. Please check my updated column later in the week.
Best Bet: Ravens TBD (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if only offered +2.5 – and around 55/50 in SU pools, though that could flip if Brown starts for Ravens).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
This is the Saturday opener at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. This is another case where I just don’t feel I’m getting enough points with the underdog. The Colts are playing better since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, but they’ve still lost their last three games after he won his debut against the Raiders. The Vikings now have the league’s worst defense at 40.3.7 yards allowed per game (after averaging a whopping 453 yards per game given up in the last three games), but I don’t trust the Colts to take advantage.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Saturday nightcap lost some of its luster with the Dolphins’ Week 14 loss to the Chargers as they fell two games behind the Bills in the AFC East. But it’s still an important Week 15 game as the Bills (10-3) are trying to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye while the Dolphins (8-5) are currently in the thick of the wild-card chase with a one-game lead over four 7-6 teams trying for the last two spots. The Dolphins were tied with the Bills before their current two-game losing streak and still have a chance to catch them with a win here as they would hold the tiebreaker with a season sweep as they beat them 21-19 back in Week 3 in Miami. That fact does make it appear the current 7.5-point spread is too high, especially since they’re only 6-7 ATS on the season (they’ve been favored in every game) and recently failed to cover in wins over the Lions on Thanksgiving and Jets last Sunday. Even though they’re No. 2 in yards per game and No. 9 in yards allowed per game, they tend to let teams stick around and the Dolphins have the weapons to keep up with the Bills again.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 70/30 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
If you took a preseason poll asking which of these teams in this Week 15 matchup would be one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South, not many would have picked the Falcons (5-8), but they’re a full game ahead of the Saints (4-8). The Falcons had a chance to pass the Bucs and actually be leading the division but have lost two straight and four of five. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is now replacing Marcus Mariota and making his first NFL start against the Saints’ No. 11 defense. The Saints were actually 5.5-point road favorites when they beat the Falcons 27-26 (but did not cover) way back in the season opener but have won only three games since. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS while the Falcons are 7-6 ATS (but that’s after a 6-0 ATS start, so they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven games). It’s tempting to take the Falcons as dogs in the rematch. While the Falcons made the move at QB to address the offense, but I’m not getting enough points with a rook ie QB against a pretty solid defense (Saints rank No. 11 in yards allowed per game), plus the Falcons have the No. 30 defense.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1)
As I’ve written many times, the Lions have been one of favorite dogs to bet the past 1 3/4 seasons as they were 11-6 ATS in 2021 despite a 3-13-1 SU record and 9-3 ATS this season. Unfortunately, I faded them with the Vikings at +8.5 in teasers last week and lost as the Lions kicked a late FG for a 34-23 victory. I was hoping to be on the Lions this week as road dogs at the Jets, but even though DraftKings was still at Jets -1 late Tuesday night, most games have gone to pick-’em and there’s a good chance the Lions will be bet to favoritism. I’m not willing to flip to the Jets as short home dogs (or pick-’em). Basically, this is a coin-flip game we like to avoid.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 51/49 in all SU and ATS contests, or basically splitting all my entries).
Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Houston Texans
Regular readers know we love double-digit underdogs – they went 2-0 ATS last week with these Texans +17 at the Cowboys as well as the Jets +10 at the Bills to improve to 13-7 ATS (65%) on the season – and feel even stronger when they’re DD home dogs. We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night because we felt that sharp bettors would be all over the Texans after they nearly beat the Cowboys outright (and they’re 3-1 ATS as double-digit dogs already this season with other covers in losses vs. the Broncos and Eagles and the only loss being by 1 point – 30-15 loss as 14-point dog in Week 11 at the Dolphins). Besides, we’d like to think that even the chalk-loving public would be reluctant to lay big points again after getting burned by the Chiefs on Sunday as they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Broncos and still didn’t cover as 9-point road favorites in a 34-28 victory. The Chiefs are 0-2 ATS as dou ble-digit faves with non-covering wins vs. the Titans and Rams). The line hasn’t dipped as expected, but I feel that just gives more followers the opportunity to take the generous points.
Best Bet: Texans +14 (pool play: Texans 75/25 in ATS contests – and all if offered +14.5 – but Chiefs still 90/10 in SU pools).
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Chicago Bears
Justin Fields has made the Bears more competitive than expected this season, but the fact remains that the Chicago defense allows 25.8 points per game and they’ve still lost six straight games. I had some success earlier this season fading the Eagles during their rise to the best record in the league as they were letting teams stick around (highlights being the Texans covering +14 on Thursday Night Football and the Commanders dealing them their lone loss at +11 on Monday Night Football), but the Eagles have won and covered the last three weeks and I’m not as thrilled with fading them anymore (or at least not with the Bears at this time).
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).