Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.
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| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 462 | 397.5 | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 441.5 | 399.5 | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| Denver Broncos | 408.25 | 375.25 | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 410 | 418.5 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs
- It should be no surprise that Vegas has Kansas City’s 462 projected points as the top three in the NFL. In each of the past five seasons, Kansas City has scored among the top six teams in the NFL, and no other team has come close to maintaining this level of offensive success.
- This puts Kansas City’s Pythagorean win total at 10 wins, just .5 wins shy of their 10.5 line set by Vegas. Though this is touted as the best division in football, Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes has yet to finish a season with fewer than 12 wins.
- The Chiefs are the favorites to win the AFC West at +155, but there’s an obvious infatuation with this division, given it’s likely the best in football. The last time the Chiefs didn’t win the division was in 2015; the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos eked out a 4th quarter victory over the San Diego Chargers in week 17 to win the AFC West.