NFL Week 14'best bets
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2, 51.5)
Dave Tuley: This is the most surprising line move of the week as the Vikings (10-2) opened as short road favorites, but the line has flipped to the Lions being favored.
The Lions have been one of my favorite teams to back the past two seasons, but those are mostly in the role of underdogs. (They were 11-6 ATS last year despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 8-4 ATS this year, including five covers in a row.) While the Lions covered as short 1-point favorites in their 40-14 rout of the Jaguars on Sunday, the last time they were favored (and the only other time this season) was as 3-point chalk versus the Seahawks in Week 4 as they lost 48-45.
This is a clear case of where we love to fade a team in the unfamiliar favorite's role. However, we feel more confident in just using the Vikings in 2-team, 6-point teasers and count on the Vikings to play another one-score game (they're 9-0 in one-score games so far this season, so we still might take the regular spread or on the money line) and we'll pair them with the Ravens, as they're still a better team than the Steelers even with Tyler Huntley in for Lamar Jackson.
Pick: Vikings 8/Ravens 8 (2-team, 6-point teaser)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10, 43.5)
Dave Tuley: This was Jets 10 when we gave it out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in our “Tuley's Takes Today” column on Monday. It was bet down to 9.5 early in the week but is back to 10 at just about all sportsbooks nationwide as of early Thursday evening.
Double-digit dogs are 11-7 ATS (61.1%) this season, but we also faded these same Bills when they were 9.5-point faves at the Lions on Thanksgiving and covered as the Lions only lost 28-25. We also cashed with the Jets 10.5 in the first meeting between these two teams this season in the Bills' 20-17 win in Week 9 and the Packers 10.5 the week before as the Bills only won 27-17. The Bills have been letting teams stick around all season. They're only 5-6-1 ATS.
The Jets failed to cover as 3-point dogs in their 27-22 loss at the Vikings last week, but they had their chances, and we expect another one-score game here as the Vikings also went toe-to-toe with the Bills in their classic 33-30 battle in Week 10.
Pick: Jets 10
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 37)
Brady Kannon: The Steelers have been trending positively ever since their defensive star T.J. Watt returned to the lineup and fellow defensive standout Minkah Fitzpatrick returned to full health after an appendectomy. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has improved upon his passer rating in each of the last four weeks, a stretch in which Pittsburgh has won three of four games.
There are still issues, however. The three wins in the last four weeks have come against the Saints, Colts, and Falcons. In nine games this season, Pickett has only thrown four touchdown passes. The Steelers rank 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt. They are 30th in Yards Per Play and 26th in Red Zone Offense. What's more, they may not have Watt or wide receiver Diontae Johnson in the lineup this week against the Ravens. Both were limited in practice on Wednesday and did not practice on Thursday. Johnson is dealing with a hip injury, while Watt has a rib issue. Watt played 87% of the snaps last week against the Falcons but had no sacks and three tackles.
This week will be a step up in class as they face an old division rival in the Baltimore Ravens. The big story is, of course, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who will likely miss this game with a knee injury. Jackson's backup Tyler Huntley, however, is probably one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, and while he is not as explosive as Jackson, he can run. All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley is a big factor in my decision-making in this game. He's a huge piece in both the running game and the passing game for the Ravens. He was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and limited on Thursday. He's missed the past two games, and my feeling is he will be ready to go this Sunday.
The Ravens' defense has been getting steadily better over the course of the season. They have given up less than 16 points per game on average over their last six contests. They rank 2nd in third-down defense, 5th in sacks, and 9th in Yards Per Point allowed.
My look-ahead line came to Ravens -11. This week's numbers come to Ravens -9.5, Ravens -8.5, and Ravens -6.5. Now, we must adjust these numbers for Jackson being replaced by Huntley, and for that, I would adjust by 4.5 points. Each set of numbers I make would still have Baltimore as the favorite in the game. With the Ravens catching less than a field goal, I opted for a teaser, taking them up to 8.5. I also made a smaller play on UNDER the total.
Pick: Ravens teased to 8.5 ( 7.5 at worst) & UNDER 37 or better
'Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5) at New York Giants
Femi Abebefe: From a number standpoint, I think there's a smallish edge in backing the Giants here due to the fact that we've seen the Eagles get bet against close to kickoff over the past few weeks. There has to be something about Philly that turns the betting market off.
Hard to see what that is after their impressive performance against the Titans last Sunday. With that said, this is a spot to fade them as they're about to begin a stretch of three straight road games. Couple that with everyone crowning them as the best team in the NFL with their league-best record 11-1.
Also, on the New York side, I think this will be a kitchen sink kind of game from a respected coaching staff. If you look at the Giants' schedule, you'll realize they can't afford to drop too many games if they want to make the playoffs. After this week, they're taking trips to Washington and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.
While they're banged up and seem to be reeling, I think we see the best the G-Men have to offer this weekend against the rival Eagles.
Pick: Giants 7
Dave Tuley: The Eagles (11-1) still have the NFL's best record and the inside track on the NFC's No. 1 seed/first-round bye with a one-game lead over the Vikings (plus the tiebreaker for beating them in Week 2). However, the NFC East still isn't secured as they only have a two-game lead over the Cowboys (and a rematch coming up in Week 15), plus this is the first of two games versus the Giants (7-4-1).
The Eagles have the No. 3 offense and No. 2 defense in yards gained and yards allowed per game, while the Giants have done it with errors as the offense ranked No. 22 and the defense is No. 23. Despite their lofty record, the Eagles were only 5-5 ATS before back-to-back covers in their 40-33 win vs. the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites and a 35-10 rout of the Titans as 4.5-point home faves to improve to 7-5 ATS. But now they're on the road, where they're only 1-4 ATS.
The Giants have been exceeding expectations all season and are 9-3 ATS (5-2 ATS at home) after covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in their 20-20 tie versus the Commanders on Sunday. This line has risen to Eagles -7, making the Giants a live home dog. NFL teams in that role are 40-29-4 ATS (58%), including 7-1 ATS when getting 7 points or more.
Pick: Giants 7
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 47)
Adam Burke: The Browns have had Cincinnati's number, going 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings with an average of 33.2 points per game on offense. If Deshaun Watson plays anything like he played last week, that streak is going to come to an end. Watson was 12-of-22 for 131 yards with a pick, and the Browns, who have had a top-10 offense throughout the season by EPA/play and Success Rate, were 26th and 25th, respectively, in those categories against a terrible Texans defense.
The first meeting between these teams this season was a rout. Cleveland won 32-13 and outgained Cincinnati by more than 200 yards. That Halloween game is the only one the Bengals have lost out of their last six games. Burrow went into that game on a heater with eight total touchdowns in the previous two games but was sacked five times by the Browns' defense and kept in check.
Will Watson be closer to game speed this week? Will the Browns harass Burrow again? There are a lot of question marks to this game, which is why the UNDER is the play. Cincinnati puts up points, but this is a methodical offense, leading the league in average time per drive and sitting fifth in plays per drive. Their 5.7 yards per play rank eighth and 11.3 yards per reception rank 15th. They're an efficient offense but not a big-play offense. Neither is Cleveland with the current state of Watson.