In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 10-3 (+6.7 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 94-73-2 (+13.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 34-26
Freedman's Week 14 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 13 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our'BettingPros odds page'on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| LAR | LV | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| BUF | NYJ | -9.5 | -11.25 | -1.75 |
| DET | MIN | -2.5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| NYG | PHI | 7 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| CIN | CLE | -6 | -5 | 1 |
| DAL | HOU | -16.5 | -16.5 | 0 |
| PIT | BAL | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1 |
| TEN | JAX | -4 | -3.75 | 0.25 |
| DEN | KC | 9.5 | 7.25 | -2.25 |
| SEA | CAR | -3.5 | -7 | -3.5 |
| SF | TB | -3.5 | -2.75 | 0.75 |
| LAC | MIA | 3 | 1.25 | -1.75 |
| ARI | NE | 1.5 | 0.75 | -0.75 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Bills -9.5 vs. Jets
- Broncos +9.5 vs. Chiefs
- Seahawks -3.5 vs. Panthers
Freedman's Week 14 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium
- TV:'CBS
Jets at Bills: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Bills -9.5
- Betting Percentages: Bills – 38% bets, 79% money
Jets at Bills: 2022 ATS Records
- Jets ATS: 7-5 (11.7% ROI)
- Bills ATS: 5-6-1 (-13.2% ROI)
Jets at Bills: Team Statistics
Jets Offense vs. Bills Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.038 | 25 | -0.021 | 9 | -16 |
| Total SR | 40.6% | 29 | 45.3% | 21 | -8 |
| Total DVOA | -2.9% | 19 | -13.0% | 4 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.047 | 28 | 0.025 | 10 | -18 |
| Dropback SR | 42.2% | 29 | 46.9% | 21 | -8 |
| Pass DVOA | 2.8% | 23 | -6.7% | 7 | -16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 12 | 7.3% | 14 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.021 | 10 | -0.113 | 6 | -4 |
| Rush SR | 37.8% | 26 | 42.0% | 18 | -8 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.6% | 12 | -22.0% | 3 | -9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.20 | 22 | 3.71 | 3 | -19 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 5.2 | 10 | -9 |
| Points per Game | 21 | 18 | 17.4 | 4 | -14 |
Bills Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.123 | 3 | -0.05 | 7 | 4 |
| Total SR | 49.8% | 1 | 42.7% | 8 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 16.1% | 4 | -12.5% | 5 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.229 | 2 | -0.043 | 6 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 53.0% | 3 | 43.3% | 7 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.9% | 4 | -12.7% | 5 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 6 | 8.0% | 9 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.089 | 23 | -0.060 | 18 | -5 |
| Rush SR | 43.3% | 8 | 41.6% | 16 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.0% | 17 | -12.3% | 11 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.25 | 20 | 4.08 | 8 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 3 | 4.8 | 2 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 27.8 | 3 | 18.6 | 6 | 3 |
Jets at Bills: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Mike White
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.4 | 42 |
Career: Mike White
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: 5.6
2022: Josh Allen
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.148 | 5 |
| AY/A | 7.7 | 8 |
| QBR | 75.1 | 3 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 4.2 | 2 |
Career: Josh Allen
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 66.8
Key Takeaway: Anything Less Than -10 Is Not Enough
When the Jets hosted the Bills in Week 9, the Bills were -10.5. Yeah, they suffered a 20-17 loss, and the Jets are better with Mike White at quarterback than Zach Wilson, but the Bills are now at Highmark Stadium, where they have a significant home-field advantage — and yet they’re only -9.5?
That doesn’t add up, especially since the Bills are playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets are on a 3-of-4 away streak.
The difference between these two teams is real. In the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, the Bills have a +7.91 rating. The Jets, -2.09.
And I know that we’ve seen back-to-back 300-yard passing performances out of White. He’s unquestionably an upgrade on Wilson. But let’s not pretend that we know for sure that he’s actually a good quarterback. He probably isn’t. Just last year in Week 9 he had an abysmal game against the Bills (54.6% completion rate, 1.6 AY/A, 4 interceptions). He’s almost certainly better than the typical third-string quarterback. But he’s yet to prove himself to be a starter-caliber player.
Anything less than -10 offers value on the Bills.
Best Line: Bills -9 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Bills -9.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Bills -11.25
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV:'CBS
Chiefs at Broncos: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Broncos +9.5
- Betting Percentages: Broncos – 31% bets, 64% money
Chiefs at Broncos: 2022 ATS Records
- Chiefs ATS: 4-8 (-36.1% ROI)
- Broncos ATS: 4-8 (-36.4% ROI)
Kansas City Chiefs: Notable Trend
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 11-16-1 ATS (12.7% ROI for faders) as favorite of more than -7
Denver Broncos: Notable Trend
- QB Russell Wilson: 30-15-2 ATS (28.7% ROI) as underdog
- QB Russell Wilson: 5-0 ATS (90.0% ROI) as underdog of more than +7
Chiefs at Broncos: Team Statistics
Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.198 | 1 | -0.081 | 4 | 3 |
| Total SR | 49.8% | 1 | 40.6% | 2 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 24.9% | 1 | -10.6% | 7 | 6 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.303 | 1 | -0.093 | 3 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 53.4% | 2 | 41.1% | 1 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | 41.2% | 2 | -14.1% | 4 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.9% | 4 | 7.3% | 15 | 11 |
| Rush EPA | -0.030 | 11 | -0.061 | 17 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 41.9% | 13 | 39.7% | 11 | -2 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.3% | 11 | -6.1% | 17 | 6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.69 | 6 | 4.67 | 25 | 19 |
| Yards per Play | 6.5 | 1 | 4.8 | 2 | 1 |
| Points per Game | 29.2 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 1 |
Broncos Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.081 | 28 | 0.041 | 22 | -6 |
| Total SR | 38.9% | 30 | 45.5% | 23 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -16.1% | 28 | 7.0% | 25 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.019 | 24 | 0.097 | 25 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 40.0% | 30 | 47.3% | 23 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | -1.9% | 25 | 13.2% | 26 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.7% | 24 | 9.0% | 5 | -19 |
| Rush EPA | -0.188 | 30 | -0.069 | 14 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 37.0% | 28 | 42.1% | 19 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -18.4% | 28 | -2.9% | 18 | -10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.28 | 19 | 4.70 | 26 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 25 | 5.4 | 13 | -12 |
| Points per Game | 13.8 | 32 | 22.5 | 15 | -17 |
Chiefs at Broncos: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.188 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.6 | 3 |
| QBR | 78.5 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 5.6 | 1 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 122.0
2022: Russell Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.042 | 28 |
| AY/A | 7 | 13 |
| QBR | 35 | 28 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.9 | 40 |
Career: Russell Wilson
- AY/A: 8.1
- QB Elo per Game: 31.8
Key Takeaway: Where’s the On-Field Edge for the Chiefs?
Betting on the Broncos is disgusting. No denying that. But I’m backing a big divisional dog at home, where the elevation provides a true edge, and I like that general scenario. And as cringy as Broncos QB Russell Wilson has been this season — both on and off the field — he’s still 4-2 ATS as an underdog.
And where exactly do the Chiefs have an on-field edge?
They’re unquestionably the better team. And I’m probably higher on the Chiefs than most people are: I still have them as the No. 1 team in my power ratings. I tend to be too high on the Chiefs each week — and now I see value on the Broncos. That’s saying something.
On offense, the Chiefs have no significant edge over the Broncos defense, which is an elite unit.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.303 | 1 | -0.093 | 3 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 0.534 | 2 | 0.411 | 1 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.412 | 2 | -0.141 | 4 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.03 | 11 | -0.061 | 17 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 0.419 | 13 | 0.397 | 11 | -2 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.003 | 11 | -0.061 | 17 | 6 |
The Broncos defense is unlikely to shut down the Chiefs offense — but it might be able to slow down QB Patrick Mahomes, and with a spread this large (and a total of just 44 points) that might be enough, especially since the Broncos offense isn’t at a massive disadvantage against the Chiefs defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | -0.019 | 24 | 0.097 | 25 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 0.4 | 30 | 0.473 | 23 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.019 | 25 | 0.132 | 26 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.188 | 30 | -0.069 | 14 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 0.37 | 28 | 0.421 | 19 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.184 | 28 | -0.029 | 18 | -10 |
The Broncos will be challenged in the running game, but what does that matter? They’re nearly double-digit dogs: They’re going to be forced to throw the ball more, and the Chiefs have a below-average pass defense.
I doubt that the Broncos win, but the Chiefs throughout the years have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering large spreads. I think that’s what happens here.
Anything more than +7 is too much for the Broncos at home.
Best Line: Broncos +9.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Broncos +9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Broncos +7.25
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Lumen Field
- TV: FOX
Panthers at Seahawks: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Seahawks -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Panthers – 46% bets, 91% money