Wednesday was a day of rest in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
My son stayed home sick from school and, while I didn’t have any of his symptoms, I was just tired from burning the midnight oil most nights writing these daily columns and editing/posting other stories on the VSiN.com website (we hope subscribers have noticed all the great sports betting content on the site every day). So, it was a great day to catch up on some sleep. Unfortunately, it was a losing day when I did finally tune into our play of the day on the NFL’s Minnesota Wild +135 at the Calgary Flames. It started great as the Wild jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the 1st Period, but then lost 5-3. Richard from New Jersey is a regular reader and wrote to us yesterday asking why I haven’t been making any NHL 1st Period Plays like he’s enjoyed the past few seasons. I explained that I usually don’t get into those until football season is winding down and we have a better feel with how teams are playing in the current season. However, I was thinking I should have played the Wild in the 1P to shorten the game and maybe I should start handicapping that way sooner rather than later (like how we turned around our MLB season back in July by concentrating on 1st 5 Inning plays instead of full-game underdogs. We’ll give that some more thought, but our recent record isn’t too shaggy as we’re still 25-15-1 ATS (62.5%) since Oct. 27 and 18-12 ATS (60%) the past 30 days. Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action, make a Best Bet for Thursday and then, as has become our custom here, update our “takes” on the full NFL Week 14 schedule.Wednesday’s Recaps
NBA: Favorites went 9-2 SU on Wednesday, but underdogs actually led 6-5 ATS as the Pistons (+11 at Pelicans), Hornets (+10 at Nets), Warriors (+5.5 at Jazz) and Wizards (+5 at Bulls) all covered in SU losses. The only outright upsets were by the Magic (+7 vs. Clippers) and Celtics (+2 at Suns). Home teams nearly swept at 10-1 SU (Suns were the lone home team to lose) but went just 6-5 ATS. Unders 6-5.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 242-125 SU with 6 games closing pick-’em, but dogs improved slim lead to 180-174-13 ATS (50.8%). Home teams lead 230-143 SU and 191-169-13 ATS (53.1%). Over/Unders are back to exactly .500 at 184-184-5.
CBB: No. 4 Purdue beat Hofstra 85-66, but did NOT cover as a 23.5-point home favorite; No. 5 UConn (-4 in 75-54 win at Florida), No. 7 Tennessee (-28.5 in 84-49 win vs. Western Kentucky) & No. 14 Indiana (-13 in 81-65 win vs. Nebraska) covered in their victories.
NHL: Faves went 6-1 on Wednesday (after dogs led 7-2 on Tuesday). The lone upset was by the Rangers (+112 in 5-1 win at the Golden Knights). Road teams went 5-2. Overs led 4-2-1 with the push in NYR-VGK (6). On the season, faves lead 241-166 with 10 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 212-201 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs’ slim lead improved slightly to 202-199-16.
Thursday Best Bet
Raiders-Rams Over 43: We know Thursday Night Football Unders were the way to go early in the season as they were 5-1 through the first six weeks. But the fact is that offenses have gotten better at being ready on a short week as the season has gone along as TNF Overs have gone 5-2 the last seven weeks – and that’s with the Bills’ 24-10 win at the Patriots staying Under 43.5 last week. But the main reason we like the Over this Thursday is it appears the total has been set based on the two teams’ season-long scoring averages rather than on their current form. The Raiders average 24.3 points per game on the season while the Rams average 16.8. However, the last three weeks, the Raiders are averaging 29.3 points per game while the Rams – even with all their injuries at key offensive positions – are averaging 17.7 points per game, so we feel this total should be closer to 47 or 48 (which is what the defenses average with the Raiders allowing 24.7 points per game and the Rams 23.3).
Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 14 schedule. Without further ado, let’s get to this week’s card (even if I don't have a Best Bet on a game, I'll still give my “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game), and then after the Monday nighter we’ll run an abbreviated version of our daily recaps along with a Best Bet for Wednesday. Las Vegas Raiders (-6) at Los Angeles RamsHmm, a home underdog on Thursday Night Football sure is tempting. Home dogs have been killing it all season at 40-29-4 ATS (58%), but they’re just 2-3 ATS on TNF (including the Rams +2 failing to cover in a 31-10 loss on opening night when everyone was healthy). That’s the problem as the Rams have been battling injuries all season and are without starting QB Matthew Stafford. John Wolford nearly pulled off an upset of the Seahawks on Sunday, though he was only 14-for-26 for just 178 yards and threw two INTS as L.A. dropped its sixth straight game. Even though they covered as 6.5-point home dogs vs. the Seahawks, I just don’t trust them to do that in two straight games against a Raiders offense that’s just started hitting its stride in its three-game winning streak.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday games).
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
This is the most surprising line move of the week as the Vikings (10-2) opened as short road favorites, but the line has flipped to the Lions being favored. Regular readers of this column know that the Lions have been one of my preferred teams to back the past two seasons (they were 11-6 ATS last year despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 8-4 ATS this year, including five covers in a row. While the Lions did cover as short 1-point faves in their 40-14 rout of the Jaguars on Sunday, the last time they were favored (and the only other time this season) was as 3-point chalk vs. the Seahawks in Week 4 as they lost 48-45. This is a clear case of where we love to fade a team in the unfamiliar favorite’s role; however, we feel more confident in just using the Vikings in 2-team, 6-point teasers and count on the Vikings to play another one-score game (they are 9-0 in one-score games so far this season, so we still might take the regular spread or on the money line).
Best Bet: Vikings +8.5 in teasers (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
We gave this out as Jets +10 on our regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night) and in the Monday version of this column. I’ve been encouraging regular readers to turn in each Sunday night as my plays on that show going 27-12 ATS (69.2%) since the start of the football season and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) since the start of November (the latter have all been early NFL picks for the following week). Double-digit dogs are 11-7 ATS (61.1%) this season, but we also faded these same Bills when they were 9.5-point faves at the Lions on Thanksgiving and covered as the Lions only lost 28-25. We also cashed with the Jets +10.5 in the first meeting between these two teams this season in the Bills’ 20-17 win in Week 9 and the Packers +10.5 the week before as the Bills only won 27-17. The Bills have been letting teams stick around all season as they’re only 5-6-1 ATS. The Jets failed to cover as 3-point dogs i n their 27-22 loss at the Vikings last week, but they had their chances and we expect another one-score game here as the Vikings also went toe-to-toe with the Bills in their classic 33-30 battle in Week 10.
Best Bet: Jets +9.5 or better (pool play: Jets 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).