Week 14 means December football, and with the way the NFL schedules things, it means a lot of backloaded division games. Seven of our 13 games this week are division battles.
With over half our games rivalries, I dug into the data at Bet Labs to look for meaningful trends. Following are trends from Week 14 forward since 2006 in just division games:
- Favorites that lost by four or less in the last meeting: 40-25-2 ATS (62%)
- Favorites that failed to cover by four or less last time: 41-26-2 ATS (61%)
- Favorites vs. opponent with a better ATS record: 76-57-3 ATS (57%)
- Underdogs that won their last game but the previous game (since 2012): 47-16-1 ATS (75%)
- Dogs that won at least their last two games (since 2012): 28-46-2 ATS (38%)
- AFC North underdogs: 40-21-1 ATS (66%)
- Underdogs playing in a dome: 70-53-1 ATS (57%)