College Football is three weeks away. The wait is almost over! Today we will look at the AAC, where Cincinnati is looking to make it three straight years as champion.
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Cincinnati came into the year with high expectations and delivered all across the board. They finished with a regular season record of 13-0, going 8-0 in conference play and securing the first playoff birth for the Group of 5. Cincinnati dominated in almost every metric. They won 11 of 13 games by double digits, including the conference championship 35-20 over Houston. Cincinnati ranked 13th in SP+ offense and 11th in SP+ defense. They were the only AAC team ranked in the top 50 in both units. They lost critical players to the NFL draft, including QB Desmond Ridder (3334 yards, 8.6 yds/att, 30 TDs, and 8 INTs) and top 10 pick DB Sauce Gardner.
Cincinnati’s +15 turnover margin (2nd overall) and 11th overall havoc rate will regress this year as they rank 107th in defensive returning production. Houston posted their best season under Dana Holgerson, going 12-2 overall and 8-0 in conference. They were the closest thing to Cincinnati in the AAC, with a ranking of 51st in SP+ offense and a ranking of 18th in SP+ defense. They posted the sixth-best overall Havoc Rate and, in turn, posted a +8 turnover margin. Houston’s success was tied to their ability to stay ahead of the chains on both sides of the ball, ranking top 30 in offense pass success rate, defense standard downs success rate, defense rush success rate, and defensive pass success rate. Houston will bring back a solid production profile, but they will likely regress in overall havoc rate and one-score games (4-0 record).' Let’s dive into a couple of teams who have a chance to dethrone Cincinnati this year.