Week 12 of the college football calendar has arrived, and with it comes a new table of NCAAF odds.'
Accordingly, I've got a fresh set of picks to hand out.
College Football Best Bets: Week 12 Predictions
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.'
This week, I'm leaning into several contrarian favorite spots, in addition to the usual ugly dogs I favor in the back half of the college football betting season.
The column picks were 3-1-1 last week.
I was down on Penn State as recently as a couple of weeks ago when it traveled to Indiana.'
The Nittany Lions had played Michigan last month and lost, 41-17. They hosted Ohio State three weeks ago and lost, 44-31.'
With the division completely out of reach, how invested would these Penn State kids really be in traveling to small towns in the midwest to cover huge numbers against mediocre teams?
Pretty invested, as it turns out. James Franklin has kept Penn State rolling, piling up 30-point wins against Indiana and Maryland the past two weeks. Happy Valley has now covered in four straight games.
There's always the chance for a drop-off, as any team can fail to cover a number at pretty much any time. But Penn State is bludgeoning these bottom-half Big Ten teams by several touchdowns, and I'm starting to feel unconvinced these spreads in the 10-20 range are enough of a marketplace deterrent.'
This is a rare super-public side I'm happy to sign my name on because the sportsbook hasn't adjusted the price enough.
Play: Penn State -19.5
We all know I love to play unranked favorites against ranked teams, but this spot is just as much about who these two teams are right now in Week 12.
NC State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games, largely thanks to the absence of quarterback Devin Leary, who is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.'
On the other hand, Louisville had covered four straight before its loss at Clemson last week. And we can hardly knock a team for losing at Clemson, right?
The Cardinals are one of my top sides of the week in a bounce-back spot, and I'd consider alt lines like Louisville -7 for a greater return.
Play: Louisville -4
Miami closed as an underdog to Georgia Tech last week. What exactly have we seen from Mario Cristobal's squad this year that makes anyone think they can go to Clemson and be remotely competitive?
Miami is 2-8 ATS this season because it has been consistently overvalued and overbet in the college football odds market. Unsurprisingly, Miami plus all these points is a big public dog, attracting a majority of the ticket volume market-wide.
Remember: This is the same Miami team that got blown out at home two weeks ago by rival Florida State, 45-3. I expect a similar result this weekend.'
Play: Clemson -19
I've already got three favorites down, so how about something that feels a little less square?'
One year after a ceiling-shattering appearance in the College Football Playoff, the Cincinnati Bearcats are playing with arguably its highest public profile in program history.