The Washington Commanders (5-5) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (1-7) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston.
The Commanders are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Commanders vs. Texans Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Texans Prediction for Week 11
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this Week 11 game with 62.3% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread this Week 11 with 56.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Commanders and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Logan Thomas has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Davis Mills has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.05 Units / 117% ROI)
- Nico Collins has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.60 Units / 44% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets for Week 11:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+7.05 Units / 134% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Texans Best Bets for Week 11:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI).
- Commanders are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 35% ROI
- Commanders are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Commanders are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4% ROI).
- Texans are 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -48.89% ROI
- Texans are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.55 Units / -15.58% ROI
- Texans are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.09% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Commanders are 2-13 (.133) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The Commanders are 4-2 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .410.
The Commanders are 1-5 (.167) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .438.
The Commanders are 3-1 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .584.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Texans are winless (0-3-1) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .559.
The Texans are winless (0-6-1) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.