The Chicago Bears (3-7) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (4-6) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta.
The Falcons are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Bears vs. Falcons Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 11
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this Week 11 game with 65.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 11 with 58.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bears and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Chase Claypool has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.05 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Marcus Mariota has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Bears Best Bets for Week 11:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets for Week 11:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.65 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 4-5 (-1.6 Units / -14.41% ROI).
- Bears are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -9.38% ROI
- Bears are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Bears are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Falcons are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -15.52% ROI
- Falcons are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Falcons are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Bears are winless (0-10) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .384.
The Bears were winless (0-7) vs top 10 offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .376.
The Bears are 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.
The Bears are 6-7 (.462) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .779.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Falcons are winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .629.
The Falcons are 3-9 (.250) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .451.