As the 49ers and Vikings grapple with the potential absence of key players for Monday Night Football, we will closely monitor the injury report while crafting our top predictions for the 49ers vs. Vikings matchup. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
In Week 6, the San Francisco 49ers faced a setback, halting their impressive 15-game regular season winning streak with a narrow 19-17 defeat against the Cleveland Browns on the road. This loss also marked quarterback Brock Purdy's first defeat as a regular season starter. The Niners are now determined to avoid consecutive regular season losses, a challenge they have not faced since Weeks 6 and 7 of 2022.
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off their fifth straight win, and fourth consecutive road win against a divisional opponent, after topping the Chicago Bears 19-13 in Week 6. All six of Minnesota's game s have been decided by one possession.
Here is our best 49ers vs. Vikings prediction for Monday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Vikings prediction: Monday Night Football
The Browns held the 49ers to season-lows in points (17), rushing yards (108), and passing yards (107) in last week's triumph. Furthermore, in 104 games with Kyle Shanahan as head coach, San Francisco's 215 yards were the fewest in any game, its 47% quarterback pressure percentage allowed was the highest, its eight 3-and-out drives were tied for the most, and its 3.9 yards per play were the team's fewest in the last 63 games.
Too many bettors will look at those statistics and assume those negative trends will carry over into Week 7. First, Cleveland's defense is light years ahead of Minnesota's in nearly every statistical category. Second, the weather played a huge part as a soaking rain made it difficult for Purdy to grip the ball (his 44% completion percentage was well below his previous career-low of 63%). Lastly, the team l ost running back Christian McCaffrey to a rib/oblique injury and Deebo Samuel to a shoulder injury early in the first half, which made it impossible for Shanahan to devise a new game plan on the fly in their absence.
Shanahan is one of the most respected head coaches and play-callers in the sport, and even if he is without McCaffrey and Samuel (they are both questionable as of publication), having a longer week to bring other players up to speed with the plan and giving them first-team repetitions will have them better prepared.
The 49ers' defense should have its way with a Vikings offense held to zero offensive points in the second half by a poor Bears team. That is a huge red flag for an offensive line graded as PFF's No. 1 run-blocking unit and No. 3 in pass protection entering the week.
If Samuel and/or McCaffrey are out, look for Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores to bring pressure more o ften, as Minnesota's 57.9% blitz rate is 14.5% more than the next closest team. However, in Week 3, when he was blitzed on a season-high 74% of dropbacks, Purdy was 17-of-27 passing for 236 yards and two touchdowns (he also took two sacks).
This is an excellent buy-low spot for San Francisco against a Minnesota team whose gaudy defensive statistics last week (five sacks, three takeaways, a defensive touchdown) were primarily a product of playing against a backup quarterback after Justin Fields suffered a thumb injury. In addition, Kirk Cousins has averaged just 15.3 fantasy points per game in primetime since 2019, and he should struggle again without Justin Jefferson to throw to.
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49ers vs. Vikings best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | -7 | -6.5 | -7 | -7 |
| -120 | -104 | -115 | +100 | +100 |
The difference between a spread of 6.5 and 7.0 points in the NFL is so big that it is worth researching prices at all the best sports betting apps. At first glance, BetMGM is the no-brainer go-to shop for our 49ers wager, as it charges the least juice among all sportsbooks with a spread of -6.5.
However, FanDuel also has a price of -115 odds on the alternate spread of -6.5, which would also be a viable option compared to Caesars' (-123) and bet365's (-120) prices when manipulating the spread down.
49ers vs. Vikings odds for Monday Night Football
49ers vs. Vikings odds analysis
Caesars is the only sportsbook frozen at a line of 49ers -7 since its initial opening, as the other best sports betting sites have teetered back and forth between -6.5 and -7 all week. T hat variance is reflected in the near-even betting splits, as 55% of the wagers have backed the 49ers. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.
All books with the best sportsbook promos are in unison with a total 44 points, with DraftKings the only one slightly juiced to the Under (-112). FanDuel and BetMGM arrived at the 44-point total from an opening number of 44.5, while the other best sportsbooks have come down further from opening numbers of 45. There has been reverse line movement throughout the week, as the early splits are 59/41 in support of the Over. The Under has cashed in each of Minnesota's last four games.
Monday Night Football game info
- When: Monday, Oct. 23, at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
49ers-Vikings prediction made 10/19/2023 at 4:02 p.m. ET
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