Out of all the markets I prefer to bet on, I absolutely LOVE betting on futures. By far, my favorite bets to make, futures betting makes betting feel more like a game to me than sweating out nightly plays and fretting over getting picks right. The longer odds, the narrative reading, the gut feelings that pay dividends in the end; it's simply unbeatable in my opinion.
There are so many futures markets to bet on; from the classics like championship and division winners to MVP awards and unique player prop markets or season stat leaders. And unlike daily or even weekly NFL betting, we get months to research and find numbers and data to use leading up to actually placing our bets in the preseason, plus we get opportunities throughout the year to hedge our original investments or jump on new opportunities.
And finally, the shifts in futures markets always create value. For a recent example, CJ Stroud has catapulted forward as the incredibly heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. As a result, we see the next shortest odds for Puka Nacua and Jahmyr Gibbs get longer, and that opens up value. Now, this award is Stroud's to lose, but in the unfortunate event of an injury, the odds for Nacua and Gibbs would drop drastically. And while this is a bit of an extreme example given Stroud is such a heavy favorite at just the midpoint, the concept is the same. A loss in value in one direction means an increase in value elsewhere.
To make an event out of my love of futures, I set out to place 32 futures bets on all 32 teams for the 2023 season before Week 1. I almost succeeded, failing to find a single bet of interest for the Rams or Packers before the season started, so I settled on 30 of them.
It's been a fun ride through the midpoint of the NFL season. Some of these bets are deader than disco while some are bursting with life and some are looking like they'll be a fun sweat right up through the last snaps of Week 18. I'll update this article weekly as things change and hopefully, we'll be celebrating a few of these come the end of the year. For the record, I placed a flat rate of $10 on each.
30 Futures Bets on 30 NFL Teams
Bet: To Go Winless (+2200)
Status: Loss
Week of Loss: Week 3
Thanks, Cowboys. Granted, Kyler Murray is set to return and maybe this would have lost anyway, but as a Cowboys fan myself, this felt personal. The worst part? It's still in my active bets, smack dab at the top so I have to look at it every day.
Bet: Undefeated at Home (+5000)
Status: Loss (3-2)
Week of Loss: Week 6
The logic here was based on the Falcons penchant for covering the spread last season combined with their soft record at home, in which they faced one singular playoff team from the year prior (the Vikings), who they happened to lose to anyway, and one fewer home game than away. Absolutely worth it for the huge payout and it was fun when they started out 3-0.
Bet: Last Undefeated Team (+1400)
Status: Loss
Week of Loss: Week 3
This one feels like it should have been a winner when you look at how well the Ravens are playing now compared to Week 3 and then Week 5 when they lost to the inferior Colts and Steelers. No one made it out of Week 6 without a loss, so if they just could have survived those two… Oh, well!
Bet: Josh Allen to Lead League in INTs (+1000)
Status: Tied for the league lead with 12
Update: Just as it looked like Josh Allen was starting to pull away, Sam Howell tossed three picks to tie him at the top. Still looking good!
I know you were starting to doubt me, but don't worry, they're not all losses! I can barely contain my excitement when talking about how fun this bet is. Every single time Allen throws a pick (which he does a LOT), I smile. I could have the worst fantasy and betting week but if Allen drops another deep ball into the arms of a defender, I feel like a winner.
Bet: Bryce Young to Lead League in INTs (+2000)
Status: Alive, has 8
If we're super lucky, these guys will tie co-share the lead at the end of the season and dead heat rules will split the difference between their odds, cashing at an overall +1500. There's not a ton to dive into as far as my logic here, just that the odds were great and rookie QBs are prone to turnovers, especially when they don't have significant offensive weapons. Our biggest obstacle is a potential benching of Young if he stinks too hard.
Bet: Ja'Marr Chase to Lead League in Receptions (+1000)
Status: Has 71. Keenan Allen leads with 83
Update: With Joe Burrow out for the year, unfortunately, this one has likely lost its chances
Ja'Marr entered SNF against the Bills just four behind Diggs but the Bills WR pulled away just a touch in their head-to-head meeting. Chase also took a hard fall and was banged up, but as I typed this out, he was upgraded to limited in practice so he should play. He'll likely need a spike week (or two) of 10+ receptions to really give this life, but six back of the lead at the midpoint is a fine place to be.
Bet: Nick Chubb to Lead League in Rushing TDs (+900)
Status: Loss, out for the season
Week of Loss: Week 2
The worst way to lose a bet is to injury, especially when it's such a gruesome one to one of the league's most likable players. Chubb had as good a shot as anyone to punch in the most TDs on the ground but now we'll never know.
Bet: Justin Fields to Lead NFC North in Rushing Yards (+460)
Status: Has 341, behind Montgomery (577), Gibbs (512) and Mattison (542)
Update: Fields missed a ton of time which basically killed this, but he's back and he rushed for 104. Can we get some late-season life?
This is the first one that is dead in practicality, yet technically still alive. Fields hasn't played since October 15th and was already trailing Alexander Mattison and David Montgomery before he hurt his finger. Who knows if he'll even get his job back, but it's extremely unlikely he'll be able to pace the division with just 8 games to go.
Bet: CeeDee Lamb to Record 1,500 Receiving yards (+650)
Status: On pace for 1,722
Update: After three 150+ yard games, CeeDee came back to Earth in Week 11 but this is looking great
This wasn't looking too hot for a few weeks, but then Lamb went nuclear for back-to-back weeks of career high marks, picking up 349 yards combined in Weeks 9+10. As long as he gets his looks, this should be on track. An average of 75 yards per game will get us there!
Bet: Justin Simmons to Lead League in INTs (defense) (+900)
Status: Alive, has 3. Lead is 6
Update: Nothing new in Week 11 for Simmons, but DaRon Bland might pull away with this
This one was kind of random, but I was basically banking on Jimmy G to just funnel half a dozen picks Simmons' way on his own. Simmons has had at least five picks in three straight seasons but we know interceptions can be pretty random. This speaks more to the lack of appealing bets on the Broncos than how much I believed in Simmons, but hopefully, a couple picks land our way and we're all in play.
Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown to Record 1,500 Receiving yards (+1400)
Status: On pace for 1,527
Update: The Sun God needs to average 86 yards per game to bring this home
Amon-Ra's lone missed game is what's keeping him off his pace, as a WR must average 88 yards per game over the course of a 17-game season to hit 1,500, and his 17-game pace right now is 1,501. He's one of the best WRs who isn't talked about like one and was the focal point of an up-and-coming offense, making this a no-brainer bet at +1400 odds. He'll need to make up those 88 yards to get us back on track officially.
Bet: NONE
I simply couldn't find something I liked. Too much uncertainty around Jordan Love and the range of outcomes was too great.
Bet: Most-Improved Team (+700)
Status: 6-4, currently most improved
Update: The Texans have now improved by three wins, more than any other team yet
I love this one! A team with a spicy young coach and a lot of young talent, plus a middling division made this bet super appealing. We ran a full feature on the Most-Improved team with a deep dive into historical results and our model's projected win totals and the Texans were my favorite play all along. They're the first to meet and pass their previous season's win total, meaning they've already made the most headway in this market, albeit by one game. With everyone else behind the curve, a seven or eight-win season just might cash this.
Bet: Exactly 4 wins (+750)
Status: Loss
Week of Loss: Week 10
It was an unconventional way of reaching five wins, but with the power of Minshew Mania and a healthy Jonathan Taylor, the Colts have managed to get it done.
Bet: Calvin Riley to Record 1,500 Receiving yards (+1500)
Status: Well off pace (975)
Update: Ridley heard my prayers with his first 100-yard game since Week 5, but it won't be enough
I admittedly (and shamelessly) drank the Calvin Ridley Kool-Aid this offseason. He was an IR stash and fantasy keeper for me, I've got him in a 1,000 receiving yard round robin, and I took a swing on him to post a monster year in his return. Sadly, he's not even pacing his WR room. Too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville, unfortunately. Barring several 150+ yard games or a massive uptick on volume, this one is toast.
Bet: First Loss to Eagles in Week 10 (+5000)
Status: Loss
Week of Loss: Week 1
It's fitting that that I write this in Week 10 when they were supposed to meet considering this bet died in Week 1 when the lions upset the Super Bowl champs in the season opener. They ended up losing to the Broncos in Week 8 anyway, but this would have been great if it made that far as I would have had weekly hedge opportunities especially against underdogs. Alas, not meant to be. There's a reason it was +5000, after all.
Las Vegas Raiders
Bet: Maxx Crosby to Lead League in Sacks (+2500)
Status: Has 10.5, lead is 13
Update: Crosby picked up another sack in Week 11, but so did the league leaders
Crosby got off to a slow start but then he must have been putting Josh McDaniels' face on opposing QBs a la The Waterboy, because he's screamed up the sack leaderboard to trail league leader Danielle Hunter by just .5 at the midpoint. I love Crosby as a player and he's a hungry, defensive beast. I simply thought these odds were too good preseason and I was right. Here's to crushing it the rest of the way, Maxx.
Bet: Quentin Johnston Offensive Rooke if the Year (+2500)
Status: Technically alive, but he has no chance
Go back in time and ask me what I was thinking because I can't really tell you now. Don't drink and bet, I guess? Look, the kid flashed serious talent at TCU and joined an offense manned by one of the league's biggest arms in Justin Herbert. The role simply hasn't materialized.
Bet: NONE
Like the Packers, there was just nothing that stood out ot me for the Rams given the injury questions, although I do have a Cooper Kupp Comeback Player of the Year ticket from mid-summer that can take its place here. Not looking too great unless everyone in front of Kupp falls off a cliff.
Bet: To Start 5-0 (+1500)
Status: Loss
Week of Loss: Week 4
Man, this one sucks. This looked so good, we got such good odds by virtue of the Dolphins playing the Chargers in Week 1 and no one expecting them to be so explosive on offense. Unfortunately, their inner nature came out in Week 4 against the Bills, that nature being that they're incapable of beating a team with a winning record. They smashed the Dolphins in Week 5 to go 4-1, too.
Bet: Justin Jefferson to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1400)
Status: Alive, but unlikely
I cashed a +2000 OPOY ticket on Jetta last season so naturally, I had to go back to the well. He was a top candidate through the early going before landing on IR a few weeks back. He could return soon and theoretically climb his way back into the race but it's an uphill battle. Fortunately, I've got a stake in someone else, as well. More on that a little below.
Bet: Exactly 5 wins (+700)
Status: Alive, 2-8
Update: Not looking good as the Pats could muster just six points in a 10-6 loss against the Colts.
It's hard to believe I was maybe too high on the Patriots even though I picked them to win just five games, but they're struggling to reach even that mark, with the worst record in the AFC. I'm hoping they can steal three wins against the Colts, Giants, Steelers, Broncos and maybe the Week 18 Jets, but the opportunities are thinning out.
Bet: Most Wins in the League (+2400)
Status: 5-5, highly unlikely
This was a play on upside and the odds more than anything, but the Saints did have one of the softest schedules on paper. Seriously, go look at it. Their “hard” games are the Lions and Jaguars. They simply haven't been very good and dropped games to the Packers and Bucs with a sputtering offense. In play, sure, but they're three wins back from the best record now.
Bet: Saquon Barkley Offensive Player of the Year (+4500)
Status: Dead
The odds were long and if it hit, it would have profited the entire 30 teams experiment and I'm salty my COPY ticket for Saquon last year lost to Geno freakin' Smith. Don't chastise me for this one.
Bet: Sweep AFC East (+3500)
Status: Loss
Week of Loss: Week 3