The Super Bowl 58 matchup is set as the Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers, and we offer our 2024 Super Bowl bets to make now based on the best NFL odds.
With each team winning one-possession games in their respective conference championships, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers set up a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, which Kansas City won 31-20. This time around, it's the 49ers who're favorites by the Super Bowl odds.
After making their sixth AFC Championship Game appearance in the six years Patrick Mahomes has been their starting quarterback, the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the previous five seasons (they are 2-1 in their last three). Meanwhile, the 49ers are 0-2 in their last two Super Bowl appearances and look for their first title since beating the San Diego Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX.
Sports betting analyst Ben F awkes reminded us that Nevada sportsbooks have lost money on the Super Bowl just twice since 1991, so bet responsibly and fade the public often with your 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction and Super Bowl predictions.
Here are our best Super Bowl bets to make early (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Super Bowl bets to make now
- Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+140 via Caesars) ????
- George Kittle Under 52.5 receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) ????
- Chiefs ML (+100 via bet365) ????
- Chiefs-49ers Over 47.5 (-110 via Caesars) ???
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Early Super Bowl player props
Sometimes when prognosticating NFL games of this magnitude, who wins often comes down to who has the best quarterback and head coach. In this matchup, the answer is far and away Kansas City, as Patrick Mahomes has more regular season wins, playoff wins, AFC titles, passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and a better quarterback rating than Tom Brady did in his first six seasons, as Adam Schefter pointed out. In addition, Andy Reid is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl, and his teams have a great track record off a bye week, going 28-5 SU including the postseason.
As such, it's not at all surprising to see Mahomes as the consensus favorite by the Super Bowl MVP odds.
Oddsmakers at our best Super Bowl betting sites essentially have this as a coin-flip game, as no sportsbook has a point spread greater than San Francisco -1.5. Thus, since we expect the Chiefs to win, we are getting great value on Mahomes' Sup er Bowl MVP odds, since he was MVP of their first two Super Bowl victories, and quarterbacks have taken home the MVP award in 10 of the previous 14 Super Bowls.
Caesars offers the best Mahomes Super Bowl MVP odds, as DraftKings and BetMGM are on the low end of the market at +120, while FanDuel offers +130 odds.
George Kittle was held catchless in the first half of Sunday's NFC Championship victory over the Detroit Lions, and finished with just two receptions on three targets for 27 yards. That stat line is an issue considering the game script called for a pass-heavy attack in the second half with the Niners down 17 points, and Kittle has now gone under this projected yardage total in two of the last three weeks. Still, we're seeing an elevated Super Bowl player props line for Kittle.
Optimists will say he has exceeded 53 yards receiving in five of the previous seven weeks, but he faces a Chiefs defense that entered the AFC Championship ranked 11th in receiving yards allowed and fifth in yards per reception to tight ends since Week 10.
All of our other NFL prop betting sites have an O/U of 48.5 for Kittle's receiving yards, and while we would still take the Under as a three-star play at that number, we are heading to FanDuel for the much better line and have more confidence at the higher O/U as a four-star play.
Super Bowl game picks
Since we expect Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP, it is only natural that we expect Kansas City to win the game outright, and are thus foregoing the +1.5 points we can get at FanDuel and bet365 (albeit at a price of -114 and -115 odds, respectively). The Chiefs opened as consensus +108 moneyline underdogs, and we are taking advantage of the plus-money odds that we can still get at all of our best sports betting sites, as the early line movement indicates there is a good chance this line will jump the fence by kickoff.
After the 17-10 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, Mahomes is now 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU as an underdog in his career. And per NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno, this is the fourth Super Bowl rematch of head coaches all time, and those that won the first matchup also won the second.
Mahomes is on fire entering this matchup, as heading into the AFC Championship Game, he had three consecutive playoff starts with zero interceptions and zero sacks taken, becoming the first quarterback to do so since the AFL-NFL merger. While the Ravens sacked Mahomes twice, they still did not force an interception after leading the league in takeaways this season, and the Chiefs have averaged 27 points per game in their last four playoff games (all wins).
San Francisco's defense has been shaky at best on its run to the Super Bowl, allowing 442 yards and 6.1 yards per play to the Lions, and 5.3 yards per play to the Green Bay Packers, while also allowing the Packers to convert seven of 13 third-down opportunities. However, we also trust in a 49ers offense that finished the regular season first in offensive DVOA. For all the winning Mahomes has done in his career, 49ers Brock Purdy is still 21-5 SU as a starting quarterback, and with weather not a factor in a domed environment in Las Vegas, this sets up to be a track meet.
DraftKings is the only one of our top sportsbooks that is juiced slightly to the Over of 47.5 (-112), so we are placing this three-star wager at any of our other best sportsbooks that offer the standard -110 juice on either side of the total.
NFL best bets made Monday at 8:36 a.m. ET.
Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Cae sars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)