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The 2024 NFL rookie quarterback class is oozing with more talent than gooey chocolate from a molten lava cake.
The four first-round draft picks made a splash in preseason, three of whom will take the reins in Week 1 as their team's starting quarterback.
The other, Drake Maye, outperformed Jacoby Brissett and saw his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds (OROY) improve drastically despite not officially being named the New England Patriots starter.
Caleb Williams, the prohibitive OROY favorite across our best NFL betting sites, is trading ahead of Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Maye, with expectations for all four rising as rapidly as Kyle Shanahan's blood pressure.
But what do the odds and preseason eye test tell us about the highly touted rookie signal-callers, and who is the best OROY bet with the regular season fast approaching?
What the odds say about this year's rookie QB starters
Odds via bet365 unless otherwise stated. Chances of winning MVP based on a 1-to-5-star scale
OROY odds rank: 5th
Opening odds: +1100
Current odds: +1400
Chances of winning OROY: ???
Maye hasn't been named the Patriots starter yet.
However, if Jerod Mayo's decision were purely based on performance and merit, Maye would be a shoo-in to lead his team out of the tunnel in Week 1.
The situation in New England, however, isn't that cut and dry and has more complexities than the Brandon Aiyuk contract negotiations.
Starting Maye would mean throwing him behind an offensive line that offers t he same level of protection as a nerdy, PhD-educated bodyguard with no combat experience.
There's also another level to consider.
What if Maye starts the season 1-6, which is by no means farfetched?
Of course, Maye will gain invaluable reps and experience, but his confidence might take a much harder shot to the arm than that PhD-educated bodyguard could dole out.
If that occurred, there would be no backup plan for Mayo.
If Brissett struggles out of the gate, at least Mayo can call upon Maye to take the reins, which he'd probably never relinquish, in a less stressful environment.
Maye's odds were trading as long as +3500 at DraftKings during the preseason.
They shortened to +1300 after his accomplished Week 3 performance against the Washington Commanders.
Based on that drastic odds shift, one would be forgiven for assuming he'd been named starting quarterback. While we wait to hear the gospel truth from Mayo's lips, there's no harm in following suit and waiting.
His odds won't shorten much more, even if he's named QB1.
And if he doesn't get the No. 1 job, his odds will almost invariably lengthen.
That's when you might want to pull the trigger. Then again, it's hard to see the value in putting your faith and money behind a backup quarterback, no matter how likely he is to enter the fold at some point during the season.
Either way, for me, it's only a maybe on Mayo's Maye.
OROY odds rank: 4th
Opening odds: +3500
Current odds: +800
Chances of winning OROY: ????
Nix made a preseason splash the most accomplished cannon-ballers would be proud of. His odds shortened as much as Shanahan's patience in the midst of two contract holdouts.
Nix was trading at +3500 to start the preseason and now stands at +800 after dominating one of the league's most lopsided “quarterback battles.”
While he mainly faced backups and fringe players, the proof was definitely in Nix's preseason pudding.
In two preseason appearances, Nix led the Denver Broncos to points on six of seven drives (three touchdowns and three field goals). On third downs, he was 6-for-7 for 72 passing yards with a touchdown.
And he didn't get sacked, which head coach Sean Payton loved more than watching Russell Wilson's Pittsburgh-bound plane depart the Mile High City.
Nix had the second-best passing grade (78.4), the fourt h-best run grade (66.6), the second-most scrambles (4), and the best NFL passer rating for rookie quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks (117.5), according to PFF.com.
He was also the Van Wilder of college quarterbacks, playing five seasons before jumping to the pros.
Nix has experience, composure, poise, and an elite ability to read the game.
While I'm trying to temper my expectations and excitement level, especially as we're only talking about two preseason appearances, I'm jumping on the Nix bandwagon.
However, I'll hop off just as quickly if his odds shorten much more.
Best bet: Bo Nix to win OROY +1100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 8.33%
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OROY odds rank: 2nd
Opening odds: +900
Current odds: +600
Chances of winning OROY: ????
Daniels represents a fascinating and high-probability OROY option.
I'll first preface this section by saying he's the second-most talented of the quartet, and I don't think I'm overstepping by anointing Williams the most gifted.
Daniels assimilated to the NFL as quickly as chameleons change color.
While he didn't play a ton, Daniels finished the preseason 12-for-15 passing, the highest completion rate (80%) of rookie quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks.
He had the fourth-best passing grade (78) among rookies, the second-best run grade (67.5), and the fourth-best NFL passing rating (100.8), according to PFF.com. < /p>
Head coach Dan Quinn perfectly deployed his new, impressive weapon.
He provided Daniels with just enough playing time to gain confidence and become accustomed to life in the NFL while mitigating the chances of injury and avoiding the prospect of seeing his franchise commodity take a big hit.
Speaking of taking big hits, Daniels and Quinn have a plan for that, too.
It's no secret that the Washington Commanders have one of the league's worst and most sieve-like offensive lines: SharpFootballAnalysis ranks it 27th, while ProFootballNetwork has it at the bottom of the food chain.
To offset that glaring weakness, Daniels released the ball faster than the hottest of hot potatoes. His 1.91-second average time to throw was the preseason's quickest.
Correspondingly, his average depth of target was just 5.5 yards, ra nking 19th of 22 first-year quarterbacks.
That's where my biggest concern lies.
Can he maintain that pistol-like release against the league's best defenses to remain among the OROY favorites?
His odds have remained stable since the start of training camp, shortening from +900 to +600.
I will hold off until I see how Daniels and his offensive line react to facing first-choice defensive personnel.
OROY odds rank: 1st
Opening odds: +275
Current odds: +120
Chances of winning OROY: ?????
Williams, among the five Under-25 QBs with the best NFL MVP odds, is on course to become a generational talent the city of Chicago hasn't seen since Michael Jordan.
While he has a winding, undulat ing, and extremely long road ahead to be perceived in that light, Williams has started on the right track.
The Chicago Bears have the best Super Bowl odds of the teams led by the four first-round signal-callers. While nobody expects the Bears to win the Super Bowl, most believe Williams will win OROY.
While his stats didn't pop off the page, Williams had the best run grade (71.3), the most big-time throws (3), and the third-best average depth of target (9.8 yards) during two preseason appearances.
He also has more weapons (Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen) than a fully loaded munitions depot.
And he passed the eye test with flying colors.
Showing better improvisational skills than a seasoned ad-lib actor, Williams showcased his athleticism and unrivaled ability to extend plays.
His worst time-to-throw rate of 3.68 seconds among rookies looks worrying at first glance.
But that's merely a case of Williams utilizing his adaptive skills and elusiveness to avoid pressure.
He was calm in the pocket and grew in confidence, particularly in his second outing against the Cincinnati Bengals, in which he threw an outrageous off-balance, across-the-body dime to fellow rookie Odunze.
However, his +120 odds, implying a win probability of 45.45% via our odds calculator, are currently too short to offer enough value.
Unless he dominates early-season proceedings like MVP odds favorite Patrick Mahomes, an incredibly unlikely scenario, his odds won't get much shorter in the first month.
I'd wait to see what transpires in the first few weeks before locking him in as your OROY pick.
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