In Arthur Smith's first season in 2021, the Falcons win total was 7.5 and Smith basically met expectations by going 7-10. The following year, the Falcons had a win total of 4.5, and Smith drastically exceeded expectations by going 7-10. That success plus a favorable projected schedule had the Falcons' win total at 8.5, but Smith fell short of expectations by going 7-10. He was not given a fourth chance to go 7-10 and was dumped after the season in favor of former Falcons interim head coach Raheem Morris.
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