At the beginning of this season, the Sun Belt embarked on an adventurous quest. The league added Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Miss from Conference USA, alongside James Madison from the Colonial Athletic.
Additionally, UT Arlington left for the WAC and Little Rock went to the Ohio Valley.
While most of the Sun Belt's realignment was football-focused, the results significantly upped the ceiling of the basketball league. All four additions finished in the top six of the standings, with Southern Miss and Marshall finishing atop the league standings.
Moreover, the Sun Belt went from 17th in KenPom's conference rankings last season to 13th this year.
True to its name, the “Fun Belt” was electric this year, and the realignment was a big reason why.
For example, the season’s final week saw Southern Miss steal the title away from Marshall after Old Dominion upset the Herd at home.
Even better, nobody expected the Golden Eagles to be competitive this season, much less to surface as league champs.
Instead, Blue Ribbon forecasted the Golden Eagles would finish last in the Sun Belt, and our own Jim Root cashed a 200-to-1 ticket because of it.
Looks like I'm buying some Southern Miss gear. Good to see @HomefieldApparl has a few top-shelf options
<3 you, Golden Eagles pic.twitter.com/rNFaEuFfQs
— Jim Root (@2ndChancePoints) February 25, 2023
If the regular season was any indication, chaos should reign in the league's conference tournament.
But as the saying goes, with chaos comes opportunity. So, you should find some betting value in the tournament.
I'm here to break down the Fun Belt conference tournament into three sections.
First, the top-four, double-bye teams ranked in order of the best chance to win the tournament.
Second, the lower-seed, longer-shot value-laden teams to look at.
Third, five individual games to target from a betting perspective.
Also, our very own Collin Wilson tracked the hottest teams via Bayesian over the past 30 days.
2023 Sun Belt Conference Tournament Bracket
2023 Sun Belt Conference Tournament Odds
| Marshall | +210 |
| Louisiana | +330 |
| James Madison | +380 |
| Southern Miss | +470 |
| South Alabama | +900 |
| Troy | +1500 |
| Old Dominion | +3000 |
| App State | +4500 |
| Georgia Southern | +5000 |
| Texas State | +7500 |
| Coastal Carolina | +10000 |
| Georgia State | +10000 |
| Arkansas State | +10000 |
| UL Monroe | +10000 |
Ranking the Top-Four, Double-Bye Teams
I've pretty much been on James Madison from the jump. The Dukes started the season with several blowout wins, showcasing how deadly their offense is.
And when the Dukes’ offense clicks, it’s almost impossible to stop.
James Madison uses its active defense (tops in the Sun Belt in turnover rate) to create unlimited transition opportunities at high efficiency (18.7 transition PPG at 1.128 PPP).
Meanwhile, the Dukes run relentless middle pick-and-roll in the half-court, leading to the conference's best half-court offense by ShotQuality PPP.
But the offense works primarily because of the personnel. Vado Morse and Takal Molson are two quick-twitch scoring guards and they tag team the best backcourt in the Fun Belt, combining for 23.4 points and 4.6 assists per game.
The Dukes run this middle pick-and-roll play for one of those two countless times per game, with this one resulting in a clutch game-tying layup for Morse.
Vado Morse (@Flyyguyyvee) gets the Game Tying Layup for James Madison with 8.9 seconds left to tie 71-71 with Hofstra to force OT pic.twitter.com/e73xpUiTp6