When the final round of a golf tournament arrives, people always ask the same question: How far is too far back to win?
Well, my model has tracked 112 events over the past few years and found that how far back a golfer is for round four only partially plays into the equation. It also matters how many names are between them and the lead.
My research has only found two occurrences in which a player outside of the top five, and more than five shots back, won the title. Sam Burns at the Colonial (seven back and in 17th place) and Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship (seven back and in seventh place) are the only two to fit that narrative.
If that data holds true to form, the 2023 Open Champion will come f rom the list below: