:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71933209/1460564765.0.jpg "2023 NHL MVP odds: Picks, predictions, favorites at All-Star Break")
It's Connor McDavid's world and all of us are living in it. Or is that the case when it comes to the Hart Trophy in the 2022-23 NHL season? It's tough to tell despite the odds being super lopsided. We're at the All-Star break and it doesn't appear anyone is going to catch McDavid in the race. Let's take a look at that and dig a bit deeper.
2023 NHL MVP odds
As you can see below, McDavid is -700 and a MASSIVE favorite to win MVP this season. We get it, McDavid has 92 points in 50 games and is on pace to eclipse 150 points, something that hasn't been done in three decades. McDavid has 16 more points than the skater behind him in the League, which is teammate Leon Draisaitl. You could argue the only reason Draisaitl is that high is because of McDavid. So really, McDavid is much further ahead than anyone else in terms of points.
Outside of points, that's where things get interesting. In terms of Game Score Value Added (GSVA), McDavid is ahead 4.1 to 3.6 for New Jersey Devils C Jack Hughes, who has been making a strong push despite the odds remaining pretty wide. Chances are no one will catch McDavid in the MVP race, but we'll humor you for the time being.
Hughes is top 10 in points at 64 (33 goals, 31 assists) and top-6 in goals at the break. The Devils are behind the Hurricanes in the standings but have a shot at winning the Metro division. If Hughes were to climb into the top-5 in points and finish near McDavid in goals while the Devils win the Metro, is that enough to win Hart? In other seasons in an alternate universe where McDavid doesn't exist, sure. In 2022-23, still probably not enough.
This isn't even looking at David Pastrnak and Nikita Kucherov, who are behind McDavid and Draisaitl in points while playing on Cup contending teams. There also doesn't seem like much of a point in going into Jason Robertson's case or Mikko Rantanen. The only scenario in which were placing bets on Hart Trophy is if we see a dip on McDavid. And it looks like Hughes may be his biggest competition despite what the odds say.