Welcome to the madness!
Every year, my goal with this breakdown is to give users the tools and strategies necessary to create a winning bracket by walking through my decision-making process on every game.
There are two variables I consider before picking a team to advance:
- My projected odds of that team advancing through each round based on results of 10,000 simulations run using my custom team ratings.
- The average percentage of users who have that team advancing on ESPN and Yahoo!
With those two factors, I create a leverage score for every team to get a sense of who the market is either overrating or underrating. The goal is to maximize our leverage score throughout building a bracket.