2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks: Expert Predicts Every Game, With Houston on Top

Welcome to the madness!

Every year, my goal with this breakdown is to give users the tools and strategies necessary to create a winning bracket by walking through my decision-making process on every game.

There are two variables I consider before picking a team to advance:

  1. My projected odds of that team advancing through each round based on results of 10,000 simulations run using my custom team ratings.
  2. The average percentage of users who have that team advancing on ESPN and Yahoo!

With those two factors, I create a leverage score for every team to get a sense of who the market is either overrating or underrating. The goal is to maximize our leverage score throughout building a bracket.

  
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