In addition to MLB win totals, divisional odds, World Series odds and player awards futures, I also bet on statistical category leaders before each MLB season.
Generally, these markets encompass wins, strikeouts and saves for pitchers, home runs, runs scored, runs batted in, steals and hits for batters.
Additionally, player futures are all long shots relative to the odds for team futures. As a result, your risk profile should be significantly smaller.
For example, I have placed 21 World Series, divisional bets, or win total wagers for the 2023 season – and I have risked more than 11.5 units on those team futures (an average risk of 0.55 units per wager).
Conversely, I have provided 41 stat leader bets below but only risked around four units in total across those bets (an average risk of around 0.1 units per wager).
Below, I'll provide my projections for these statistics, guide you through each category, and tell you where I'm placing my money for the 2023 season.
Also, check out Part I: my team futures article, and look out for Part III, my upcoming player awards futures piece, on Tuesday.
Most Wins
Here are my projected pitching wins leaders for the 2023 season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook — which typically has the best available odds for any player in this market:
In any stat leader market, I'm looking to identify players near the top of the projection leaderboard who aren't correctly bucketed – on the odds board – relative to their projection peers.
For example, Max Fried (+2500) immediately stands out on the list above. I have him tied for the league lead with Gerrit Cole and project Fried for the most starts on the team with my highest projected win total.
Fried is my favorite bet in the wins market — and if you’re searching for one prop in each category, I’ll highlight my favorites.